Here's what brokerages expect from Maruti Suzuki's Q4 results today

Maruti Suzuki's stock tumbled 41.35 per cent in Q4FY20 as compared to the 29.42 per cent decline in Nifty50 index in the same period

Maruti Suzuki India will report its March quarter results of the financial year 2019-20 (Q4FY20) on Wednesday. Analysts expect India's largest carmaker's profit in the fourth quarter of financial year 2019-20 (Q4FY20) to fall anything from 18 per cent to 40 per cent on a year-on-year basis, while revenue decline to be in early teens, largely led by sharp fall in volumes. The automaker had posted revenue of Rs 21,460 crore and profit of Rs 1,800 crore in the corresponding quarter last year.

"Indian auto companies are likely to report dismal 4QFY20 results given the sharp decline in sales volumes. Margins should also remain under pressure due to the adverse operating leverage effect on account of lower top-line." wrote analysts at Jefferies in a result preview note.

At the bourses, Maruti Suzuki has underperformed the market during Q4FY20. Maruti Suzuki's stock tumbled 41.35 per cent during the quarter under review as compared to the 29.42 per cent decline in Nifty50 index in the same period. Nifty Auto index also crashed 42.37 per cent during this time frame.

Here's what leading brokerages expect from the company's latest results.

Axis Capital

We expect revenue to decline around 15 per cent YoY to Rs 18,680 crore  due to marginally better ASPs (average selling prices) while profit may fall 18 per cent to Rs 1,470 crore. EBITDA margin is likely to increase 50 basis points on a YoY basis to 11 per cent, largely due to gross margin expansion (around 140 bps) partially offset by higher employee costs. Cost reduction efforts by the company will offset some of the negative operating leverage impact. On a sequential basis, we expect gross margin to expand 200 bps, largely due to reduction in discount levels. Overall, earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and ammortisation (Ebitda) may come in at around Rs 2,060 crore, a 9 per cent YoY fall from Rs 2,260 crore reported in the corresponding quarter of last fiscal year.

Nomura

We expect Maruti's revenues to decline around 13 per cent YoY on the back of volume drop. EBITDA margins is expected to remain flat sequentially as benefit from inventorisation, lower discounts is expected to be offset by operating leverage and higher commodity. Revenue may fall 13 per cent YoY to Rs 18,596.5 crore and net profit is expected to decline 17 per cent YoY to Rs 1,496 crore.

Kotak Securities

We expect revenues to decline by 12 per cent yoy to Rs 18,846.7 crore in 4QFY20, led by 16 per cent yoy decline in volumes and 1 per cent yoy increase in ASPs. Profit may also slip 28 per cent YoY to Rs 1,293.5 crore. We expect EBITDA to decline by 20 per cent in the quarter under study led by 12 per cent yoy decline in revenues and 80 bps decline in EBITDA margin driven by negative operating leverage (-20 bps).

Dolat Capital

The automobile sector, in general, is likely to report sharply weak Q4FY20, due to planned BS4 inventory correction undertaken by OEMs, lockdown in the month of March owing to the spread of COVID-19, and sharp fall in export volumes. We expect Maruti's topline to de-grow by 15 per cent YoY. We see a significant 40 per cent YoY fall to Rs 1,077.1 crore in earnings for Maruti. Ebitda may slip 28.2 per cent YoY to Rs 1,625.7 crore and  EBITDA margin is expected to contract by 164bps YoY to 8.9 per cent owing to negative operating leverage and unfavorable currency movement.