Q1 earnings, IIP data to dictate stock market mood: experts

However, the markets may open lower on the back of dismal American labour market data

Stock market investors are in for a volatile week with a slew of events lined up including quarterly corporate earnings of TCS, HDFC and Infosys, and crucial industrial output data for May, experts said.

While the markets may open lower on the back of last Friday's dismal American labour market data, key triggers for domestic markets in form of better-than-expected earnings of bluechips and the May IIP number -- a sign of the economy's health -- only appear from the middle of week.

Kicking off the April-June earnings season amongst large-caps will be HDFC (July 11), followed by IT majors Infosys and TCS (both on July 12) and HDFC Bank (July 13).

Market participants said industrial production numbers, to be released on July 12 as well, may also have some impact on the trading sentiment this week after a decline in March and a flattish reading for April.

However, marketmen are not too bullish on the earnings reports card of India Inc and feel results could disappoint investors as most companies have been reeling under the impact of slowing growth and high borrowing costs.

"First quarter FY2012-13 earnings are likely to be weak, marking yet another lackluster quarter in a prolonged slowdown phase. The rupee has also depreciated 8% against the dollar in the first quarter and this could potentially suppress reported profit growth on top of weak core earnings outlook," brokerage firm Edelweiss Securities said.

In terms of sectors, IT, auto, pharma are expected to post healthy top-line growth, while growth for metals, construction and real estate firms could be relatively lower, it added.

"High inflation and slowing GDP growth are expected to continue hamper the earnings growth for Sensex companies," Angel Broking said in its report.

Brokerage firm Motilal Oswal estimates profit after taxes for Sensex companies to grow at 9% y-o-y in the first quarter and flat in the second quarter.

Besides, earnings, investors will also closely watch how the monsoon progresses. Before rains just around the end of this week drenched almost all parts of Northern region, the cumulative rainfall in the month of June had been about 30% lower than normal.

"Going forward investors will track the monsoon, central banks policies to boost the economic growth" Geojit BNP Paribas Head Research Alex Mathews said.

Experts also expect the stock markets to take cues from the rupee, which appreciated by 19 paise to close at 55.42 a dollar.

"Since rupee is unable to hold below 55 levels for the next few days, we could see rupee testing 57 again in few days," said Manpreet Kaur Doad, Analyst, IndiaForex Advisors.