Semicon revenues to fall 17% in 2009: Gartner

Despite rising worldwide sales on a sequential basis, PC and cellphone semiconductor revenues will still decline 17.1 per cent to $212 billion in 2009 from $255 billion in 2008, according to tech research firm Gartner Inc.

Bryan Lewis, research vice-president at Gartner, said that the semiconductor market has performed better than expected, with second quarter semiconductor sales increasing 17 per cent on a sequential basis.

“Consumers reacted strongly to reduced PC and LCD TV pricing as price elasticity was amazing. The industry also benefited from the China stimulus package that worked remarkably well to boost short-term demand.

Governments worldwide took action quickly and extensively to avoid a meltdown, and it worked,” Lewis said in a statement.

Some of the leading semiconductor vendors reported positive second quarter sequential revenue growth that bodes well for the PC and cellphone segments. Intel posted 12 per cent sequential revenue growth, while Samsung, the No. 2 semiconductor vendor based on 2008 revenues, posted 30 per cent sequential increase in chip sales driven by firming memory prices, exchange rates and a rebound in PC production. Qualcomm, the No. 8 ranked semiconductor vendor last year, reported that its cellphone chip sales increased 35.7 per cent sequentially.

“While the industry did see some better than expected results in the second quarter of 2009, the question is can this optimism be sustained through 2010,” Lewis said. Gartner had earlier projected semiconductor revenue to decline 22.4 per cent in 2009. While this outlook has improved, Gartner pointed out that all major segments of the semiconductor market are expected to experience double-digital revenue declines this year.

For example, the largest segment of the semiconductor market, application-specific standard product (ASSP), will reach $57.2 billion in 2009, but this is a 16.5 per cent decline from 2008 revenue. The memory market, the No. 2 segment, is forecast to total $41 billion, a 13.5 per cent decline from last year.

The microcomponents segment (microprocessors, micro controller units, digital signal processors) is on pace to reach $39.4 billion in 2009, a 19.2 per cent decline from 2008.

According to Gartner’s latest outlook for 2010, worldwide semiconductor revenues will total $233 billion, a 10.3 per cent increase over 2009 projections.

“The fourth quarter of 2009 and first quarter 2010 will be extremely important in shaping annual growth for 2010,” Lewis said.

“We are currently expecting the fourth quarter of 2009 to be slightly positive, in line with typical seasonal patterns, but foundries have reported they are concerned that demand may drop off more than seasonal in the fourth quarter, and it may carry into first quarter 2010. Gartner’s most likely scenario is calling for a negative 5 per cent growth in the first quarter of 2010 as customers take a pause to absorb all the devices they purchased over the previous three quarters.”