Traded volumes to hold the key

The markets recorded another volatile session, though the downward momentum seemed to have slackened in pace as a technical bounce was seen due to short covering. The market internals continued to remain negative as the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange (NSE) combined figures were 1463:2092. The capitalisation of the same on a commensurate basis was also negative as the fuigures were Rs 5,153 cr:Rs 5,413 cr.

The decline was led by the banking and midcap stocks which remained under the hammer. The turnover was higher which is a sign of mild improvement.

The indices closed in the upper half of the intraday range as lower levels attracted short covering coupled with feeble buying. The intraday range advocated for Wednesday between 2700 and 2845 has held as the Nifty traded within these. The improved volumes are a sign of mild optimism and should follow up buying be seen at lower levels. The markets may see a mild revival.

The sustainability and the extent of such an uptick would be, however, questionable. The coming session is likely to witness a range of 2850 on advances and 2680 on declines. The bullish trigger will be the 2780 level and the bearish pivot the 2755 levels. Traded volumes will hold the key in the near term. The outlook for the markets on Thursday is that of caution as the bears continue to hold their sway and fresh buying is recommended only on the back of strong weight of evidence that bulls intend to stay in the fray.

Vijay L Bhambwani 
(Ceo - BSPLindia.com)

The author is a Mumbai based investment consultant and invites feedback at vijay@BSPLindia.com