Wkly Tech Analysis: Markets shrug off gloom, bias turns positive

After facing uncertainty for the better part of the week, the stock market finally signed off on a strong note thanks to the optimism shown over the Budget. The Sensex touched a high of 16,669, and finally ended the week with a gain of 238 points at 16,430. The budget day rally also helped the index end the month on a positive note, up 72 points.

Among the index stocks — Hindalco soared nearly 8 per cent to Rs 161. Maruti, Larsen & Toubro, Hero Honda, ICICI Bank and Sterlite were the major gainers. On the other hand, ITC shed 6.5 per cent at Rs 232. Reliance Communications, Tata Power and Hindustan Unilever declined 2-3 per cent each.

The index is likely to gain strength above 16,625, while it may find considerable support around 16,100 during this month. The bias will remain positive as long as the index trades above 16,100.

Next week, the index may find support around 16,235-16,120, while face resistance around 16,625-16,740.

The NSE Nifty moved in a range of 159 points, from a low of 4,833, the index rallied to a high of 4,992. The index finally closed the week 77 points higher at 4,922.

The bias for the Nifty will remain positive as long as the index stays above 4,780. The daily chart indicates strength above the 5,000-mark, with a possible target of 5,200.

The Nifty’s quarterly chart indicates strength above 4,940, and strong support around 4,780. The yearly chart too indicates the trend to remain up as long as the index holds 4,600.

The daily short-term moving average of the Nifty is currently at 4,840, and is likely to act as a near-term support for the markets. The medium-term (50-days) moving average is around 5,014, and the long-term moving average at 4,750.