Wkly Tech Analysis: Nifty resistance seen at 4,450

Smart gains on Friday helped the Sensex close the week on a positive note. The index dropped to a low of 14,017 in the early part of the week due mainly to significant weakness in the Reliance and ONGC scrips. However, the index rallied to a high of 14,782, up 765 points from the week’s low.

The Sensex finally closed the week with a gain of 1.7 per cent, or 243 points, at 14,765. More action was seen on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) with futures & options expiry on Thursday and the Nifty going free-float a day later.

Among the Sensex stocks — Jaiprakash Associates was the major gainer, up nearly 10.5 per cent. Larsen & Toubro, ACC, HDFC, Grasim, ICICI Bank and Bhel were the other major gainers. On the other hand, Sun Pharma crashed 13 per cent. Ranbaxy, Tata Steel and Mahindra & Mahindra were the other prominent losers.

With the Railway Budget to be presented by the next weekend, and the Union Budget a couple of days later, the entire focus is likely to be on these major events. A clear direction for the markets may emerge after the presentation.

Technically, the Sensex looks set to re-test the 15,000-mark, and is likely to show strength above the 15,250-level only. On the downside, the index may find support around 14,300-14,470.

The NSE Nifty moved in a range of 209 points, from a low of 4,413, the index moved up to a high of 4,352, before settling with a gain of 62 points at 4,376.

The Nifty is likely to face some resistance around its short-term (20-days) daily moving average at 4,450. The mid-term trendline support is seen around 4,050. This week, the index may find support around 4,300-4,250.