Negative global cues may trigger selling

Market is seen opening lower, tracking negative leads from Asian markets and overnight decline on the Wall Street. Trading of Nifty 50 index futures on the Singapore stock exchange indicates that the Nifty could fall 21 points at the opening bell.

Overseas, Asian shares declined Friday, following a negative closing in the US stocks after the release of a stream of disappointing global economic data on Thursday. Investors continue to closely watch high-level talks between US and Chinese trade negotiators in Washington, with little more than a week left before a US-imposed deadline for an agreement expires, triggering higher tariffs.

US stocks finished lower Thursday as fresh economic data out of Europe and Japan suggest further slowing in global growth. Concerns about slowing global growth were underscored by the release of surveys from Europe and Japan that showed manufacturing contracting in February, with export-dependent German manufacturers reporting the worst drop in activity in more than six years.

In US, December's durable goods data showed a surprise slowdown in business spending. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey fell to minus 4.1, the first negative number since May 2016 and the biggest drop since August 2011. Markit PMI data also showed manufacturing activity at the slowest pace in 17 months.

Closer home, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought shares worth a net Rs 55.48 crore on 21 February 2019, as per provisional data released by the stock exchanges. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought shares worth a net Rs 202.10 crore on 21 February 2019, as per provisional data.

Domestic stocks ended higher for second straight session yesterday, 21 February 2019, amid positive global cues. Broader market outperformed the main stock indices. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, rose 142.09 points or 0.40% to settle at 35,898.35. The Nifty 50 index rose 54.40 points or 0.51% to settle at 10,789.85.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday released the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee's meeting held on February 5-7. Governor Shaktikanta Das has said that the neutral stance of the central bank will provide flexibility and the room to address challenges to sustained growth of the Indian economy over the coming months, as long as the inflation outlook remains benign.

In his statement, Das said that global growth was losing traction amidst lingering trade tensions and uncertainty around Brexit. On the positive side, crude oil prices remain soft, though the benefit for net exports could be restricted due to slowing global demand. GDP growth for 2019-20 is projected at 7.4% - in the range of 7.2-7.4% in H1, and 7.5% in Q3 - with risks evenly balanced.

Das noted that the CPI inflation print of December at 2.2% continued to surprise on the downside. The RBI Governor also believed that the outlook for food inflation was expected to be benign in the backdrop of excess domestic supply conditions in many food items. CPI inflation is projected at below 4% in the remaining four quarters - 2.8% in Q4:2018-19, 3.2-3.4% in H1:2019-20 and 3.9% in Q3:2019-20 - with risks broadly balanced.

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