Banking on disaffection

US primaries continue to amaze onlookers

The first Tuesday in March of an American election year - "Super Tuesday" - is the peak of the primary season. Typically, candidates winning Super Tuesday, when several populous states cast their votes, go on to win their parties' nomination. The United States' long primary process has served well in the past; the exigencies of inner-party competition and months of scrutiny have traditionally meant that both parties eventually nominate relative moderates. But not this election cycle: The undisputed winner of the Republicans' Super Tuesday was New York real-estate showman Donald Trump. Mr Trump has vaulted all barriers in his way with insouciance, even with arrogance. Jeb Bush, the former governor of Florida - and son and brother of past presidents - told Mr Trump on stage that he couldn't "insult his way to the presidency". But Mr Trump is now the overwhelming favourite for the nomination, while Mr Bush had to drop out. In the meantime, Mr Trump has insulted not just his fellow candidates but a long list of others - ranging from journalists, to the Wall Street Journal ("dishonest", "dummies"), a Miss Universe, two former presidents - George Bush and his father, various Republican Party organisations, Germany ("a total mess"), the idea of debates ("dumb"), the Macy's department store for some reason, a telecom company (for bad service), and a podium in the White House that he angrily declared "looked odd". He even survived trading barbs with Pope Francis. It is hard to disagree with Mr Trump when he asserts that he could stand in the middle of New York's Fifth Avenue, shoot someone in full view, and still not lose his support base. It is true that Mr Trump has benefited from a divided opposition within the Republican camp; but it may already be too late for the anti-Trump Republican vote to consolidate. Meanwhile Mr Trump poses a genuine threat to the Democratic Party in the general election; he is not as socially conservative as most Republicans, and his authoritarian populism can draw followers from the disaffected across party lines.

That there are plenty of disaffected voters on the Democratic side too is evident from the fact that Hillary Clinton largely won the Democrats' Super Tuesday and yet has not pushed the socialist Bernie Sanders out of the race. The elderly senator, with his potent but unlikely call for "political revolution", has struck a chord with younger voters, bruising Ms Clinton badly. Mr Sanders' economic plans are as incomprehensible and unbelievable as Mr Trump's, but both have managed to distract attention from this by railing at the "establishment" - although Mr Sanders has been a US Senator for decades and Mr Trump has been embedded in the establishment all his life.

Most moderate Americans are befuddled by the sight of insurgents from the extremes of their politics, who seem to break every political rule and yet stay on top. The long stagnation of the US middle class, the recent breakdown in race relations in small-town America, and anger over inequality and the Obama administration's policy favouring the financial sector have led to a position where the distrust of politics has become so widespread that it has undermined the political process' ability to weed out extremists. The US could be in for tough times.