Behind AAP's sweep

A consolidation of anti-BJP votes transforms the narrative

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)'s sweep of Delhi's Assembly election is unprecedented. Few expected the degree to which the AAP would vanquish the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) - which has, after all, less than a year ago won a majority in the Lok Sabha, including seven out of seven parliamentary seats in Delhi. Yet it is clear what has happened in the just-concluded Delhi Assembly election. An anti-BJP consolidation has taken place. The comparative vote shares of the three major parties make this point quite clear. The AAP won an unexpected 30 per cent of the vote in the 2013 Assembly elections; in the May 2014 general elections, it increased that share marginally, to 33 per cent. It is in this poll that its vote share went up sharply, to well over the halfway mark - a rare achievement in India.

How could the AAP ensure it was the preferred choice of more than one out of every three registered voters in Delhi? The answer lies in the destruction of the Congress vote. Even in 2013, although it was voted out of power and left with very few seats, the Congress still had 24 per cent of the vote. That went down to below 20 per cent in 2014 - and below 10 per cent in this election. Congress voters deserted the party for the AAP, which they calculated was best placed to stop the BJP juggernaut.

It is important to note that the BJP secured a vote share of around 32 per cent, which was marginally lower than the 33 per cent votes it got in 2013. But that was enough to see its seats fall about 90 per cent. Remember that the BJP did not benefit from the decline of the Congress vote probably because of the Sangh Parivar's divisive agenda that had put off voters and possibly brought together the anti-BJP votes.

For both the BJP and the Congress, this is time for introspection. The Congress must recognise that it is no longer a credible alternative even for dyed-in-the-wool Congress voters in a state it ruled relatively creditably for 15 years. It won not a single seat in the national capital. If this does not wake up its supine leadership, nothing will. The BJP, meanwhile, must realise that it cannot coast on the Modi wave forever. The Modi-Shah model of centralised and personalised political management has foundered; perhaps a more empowered local party would have done more to attract new voters. It must also reconsider if it should continue endorsing the religiously polarising agenda of some of its affiliates.

For the AAP, this is a second chance, one that seemed quite unlikely for much of the past year. If the party is to build on the opportunity, it must recognise what it can and cannot do. It cannot squander its mandate fighting the Centre. It cannot try to push a lok pal through over central objections; it cannot reorganise the municipal corporation, or seize control of the police, or legalise every unauthorised colony. All these will require patient negotiation with the Centre, which cannot take place in an atmosphere vitiated by agitational politics. Instead, the AAP government must focus on easy but vital wins. Fix governance and bribe-taking. It has also promised to make Delhi more attractive to business by addressing issues with the value-added tax. If it stays the course and eschews populism, it will indeed look like the coherent national alternative to the BJP many in Delhi have already viewed it as.