Climate change costs

Unpredictable weather may impact 30 per cent of the harvest

India has been hit by unusual weather. Much of the country has endured unseasonal rain, even hailstorms. In the process, nearly 30 per cent of the rabi planting seems to have been spoiled, with adverse implications for food availability and inflation, as well as farmer distress. The first half of March has been unusually cool, besides being the wettest for 100 years; this weirdness is likely a product of climate change. The weather has played havoc with the main rabi crops, like wheat, mustard and gram, as well as many vegetable and fruit crops on over 18 million hectares in almost all the Indian states. The loss in production is bound to be substantial, feared to be worth around Rs 65,000 crore in wheat alone. Oddly, some tracts, such as those in Vidarbha and Marathwada in Maharashtra, have had to first cope with drought and then excessive rains. The key agricultural belt in the northwest, too, has suffered extensive losses due to this climate change-induced peculiar weather. And both the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the private weather forecaster Skymet warn of another wet spell in north India in the last week of March and early April. If that happens, which seems probable considering the improved short-range weather prediction skills of these agencies, it might spell further disaster for rabi crops, most of which would, by then, be ready for harvest. The impact on food inflation, particularly vegetable prices, will likely be sharp.

This year's uncharacteristic weather can by no means be dismissed as a one-off phenomenon. Abnormalities of this kind have been witnessed fairly often in recent years. The Sholapur region in Maharashtra was lashed by hailstorms last February-end as well. Hill states have been victims of unprecedented cloudbursts and the floods that followed. Even the pattern of monsoon rainfall seems to have undergone a perceptible change. Most of the year's rains fall in the second half of the four-month-long monsoon season, with the agriculturally more critical first half (June-July) being drier. And the withdrawal of the monsoon quite often begins much later.

India's high vulnerability to climate change is well known. This is so especially because of its large agriculture-dependent population, excessive pressure on natural resources, particularly land and water, and the inability of the poor to cope with natural disasters. This makes it imperative to have in place well-crafted short-term and long-term strategies to deal with weather-related contingencies. Development of climate-resilient technologies is vital for this purpose. However, since many of the outcomes of climate change are difficult to foresee and may also be hard to undo through mitigation efforts, it may be essential to adapt to these changes to minimise their adverse fallout. Luckily, Indian farm scientists seem well aware of the agricultural sector's vulnerability and have begun working on adaptive technological and agronomic practices to reduce weather-induced damages to crops, livestock and fisheries. They have already achieved some success in evolving crop varieties and their planting and harvesting schedules that can help rabi crops to escape the heat stress that often occurs towards the end of the rabi season due to an abrupt rise in temperature. Similar strategies are needed for other probable weather abnormalities, especially of the type encountered this year.