Dealing with Beijing

PM's trip to China must be conciliatory but cautious

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's forthcoming trip to China has aroused considerable interest. For one, this is the third time that he and President Xi Jinping are meeting in the past year. In addition, the last time they met - during Mr Xi's visit to India, a visit that was to be a showcase of a rising India was derailed by a very familiar weakness - an incursion by Chinese troops on India's northern boundary. Finally, there are continuing expectations that some major step forward to stabilise the bilateral relationship - perhaps some move forward on the border dispute - is imminent. Mr Modi, however, must be cautious above all. The paramount lesson should be perhaps not to give too much away to a country that has shown itself far better in negotiations than most. Consider what most consider to be the de facto recognition of China's claim to Tibet, by the last National Democratic Alliance government under Atal Bihari Vajpayee. More than a decade later, it seems India got nothing, in strategic terms, for handing over a crucial bargaining chip.

What is to be welcomed is that Mr Modi has sought to break out of the pincer constraining the India-China relationship hitherto. It seems, reading between the lines, that he believes India can deepen and intensify its relationship with both China and the United States, albeit on different fronts, with no harm done to either from this strategy. In addition, it seems that he is willing to move forward in a most pragmatic manner on Chinese investment in India on a track parallel to - or distinct from - concerns about Chinese actions on the border or in India's neighbourhood. Such pragmatism is welcome, and a leader with Mr Modi's political capital was perhaps needed to create this dual-track approach. Still, it must be noted that, in the end, the two tracks are not as distinct as is being imagined. Economic interlinkages, particularly in core infrastructure sectors, could wind up being a source of strategic vulnerability. This trade-off may lie in the distant future, but it exists nevertheless and, thus, once again, Mr Modi should be cautious.

It may, thus, be unwise to expect or hope for too much from Mr Modi's visit. Good atmospherics can almost be taken for granted - making those happen is a large component of the prime minister's political genius. In a relationship marked by suspicion - 83 per cent of Indians consider China a threat, according to a 2014 Lowy opinion poll - good atmospherics may be an achievement in itself. When seen with the pragmatism about the affordability of an aggressive stance vis-à-vis China that the Modi government has displayed, for example, in cutting back the proposed mountain strike corps from 90,000 soldiers to 35,000, it then could be the case that a sustained effort to damp down tensions may be on the anvil. But this need not, and must not, come at the cost of giving away any strategic advantages, given China's history of one-sided bargains. At best, India can hope for a conciliatory posture while it irons out its problems with domestic economic growth. While it waits, it must create a strategy that can deal with a China that is immensely more powerful - and cynical - without ceding ground. This has not emerged in the Modi government's first year. Hopefully, this trip will reveal more.