GenNext on court

The opening salvoes of a new era in tennis have begun

The just-concluded US Open, played against the backdrop of the Covid-19 pandemic sans stadium audiences, may have signalled the rise of the next generation on the international tennis circuit. Naomi Osaka won her second US Open title and her third overall (having won the Australian Open in 2019) and Dominic Thiem won his first Grand Slam final (having featured in two French Open and one Australian Open final before). This has, of course, been an exceptional year in the tennis calendar with Wimbledon, the year’s second Grand Slam, cancelled owing to the pandemic, and the disqualification of Novak Djokovic, widely tipped to win the 2020 US Open in the absence of Roger Federer (out with a back injury), and last year’s winner Rafael Nadal opting not to travel.

Still, the first two decades of the 21st century have seen an extraordinary run with three men and one woman dominating the US open, and tennis in general. All of them are now over 30 and are showing signs of wear and tear. Serena Williams, 39, with 23 Grand Slam titles to her name, has struggled with poor health after the birth of her child and has not won a Grand Slam since 2017. But Ms Williams has figured in 10 US open finals in the past 22 years, winning six between 1999 and 2014. Mr Federer, 39, with a record 20 Grand Slam titles, has not won a Grand Slam since 2018. Yet, two-thirds of the players in the finals of the US Open since Mr Federer’s run of five successive titles ended in 2008 were the big three, with bit roles played by Stan Wawrinka, Andy Murray, Juan Martin del Potro, and Marin Cilic. The dominance of these players at the Australian Open has been even greater: 14 of the last 15 winners, not to mention Wimbledon: 15 of the last 17 winners. And the French Open, where Mr Nadal’s dominance of 12 titles has meant that the only exception to the big three men as winner in 15 years was Mr Wawrinka in 2015 (when Mr Nadal was injured). 

But there are signs that this extraordinary reign of the big four (who between them have 79 Grand Slam titles) is nearing its end. Many may see the transition some distance away. But Messrs Nadal (19 Grand Slams) and Djokovic (17) are approaching their mid-30s. Mr Federer has won only three of his 20 Slams after Wimbledon in 2012, when he was not yet 31. Challenge won’t come from the older players, for Messrs Murray, Wawrinka, del Potro, and Cilic, all of whom are in their 30s and beset by niggling injuries. So glory beckons new arrivals such as Dominic Thiem and Alexander Zverev, finalists in New York this year. Before long, one of them will beat one of the big three in a Grand Slam final. Among women, winners have come and gone. None has shown the star quality or staying power of Chris Evert, Martina Navratilova, and Steffi Graf. Ms Osaka has become the first woman to win two titles at Flushing Meadows after Ms Williams’ run of three victories ended in 2014 but she is yet to demonstrate the kind of consistency of the greats. The French Open, due to begin on September 21, may offer more conclusive proof of GenNext’s winning power.