Lessons from Europe

India must speed up vaccination

The pandemic is far from over. A Reuters analysis of the latest data indicates that, in 55 of 240 countries, infection case numbers are rising instead of falling. Some countries, particularly in Eastern Europe, are at record levels of infections and there is genuine concern that many of them will have to lock down again to some extent — particularly countries like Russia, where there has been considerable vaccine hesitancy, which has prevented a sufficient proportion of the local population from being vaccinated. Some countries that have already endured major previous waves and were hopeful that the spread of vaccines would protect them from another surge are reconsidering: Germany, in particular, is recording its highest levels of Covid-19 infections ever and the pressure on the health system is beginning to show. Europe is particularly at risk, with the World Health Organization calling it the “epicentre” of the pandemic, and warning that half a million more fatalities may result in the region.

There are lessons for India in Europe’s continuing vulnerability to the surge. India is a few months behind most European countries in terms of vaccinating its population. It has also suffered a devastating second wave, similar in intensity to the waves that have hit Europe in the past year and a half. Thus, if Europe, which has emerged from stringent lockdowns in the past, is also in a position where some softer lockdowns are being seriously considered, India must watch carefully if it is to try and avoid a similar resurgence in cases and subsequent lockdowns.
 

The first and most important lesson is to speed up and complete the vaccination programme. Many of the areas hardest hit in Europe, including Russia and parts of Southeastern Europe, are those where the vaccination programme has not really taken off to the extent that it should have. In spite of developing its own Sputnik vaccine, Russia has provided the first dose to only 40 per cent of its eligible population. The country also declared victory on the coronavirus “too soon”, according to experts. Aspects of the latter problem might be visible in India also, such as the triumphalism surrounding the achievement of every milestone in the vaccination programme. Triumphalism, as in Russia, sows the seeds of disaster in that it encourages complacency among both administrators and the public. Complacency, at all costs, must be avoided. There is no longer a supply constraint on vaccines: Currently over 150 million doses are still sitting unutilised with state governments.

Speeding up the vaccination programme will need India to ensure that those who are eligible for their second dose do in fact receive it on time. Anecdotal evidence has emerged that many who took their first dose are not returning for their second. It is essential that this dynamic not be allowed to take hold. Questions will also have to be asked about whether vaccine mandates, for example in large employers and in the public sector, should be a major part of the incentive structure. Finally, some evidence has emerged that protection from the vaccine wanes (though does not disappear) over time. Experts in India must evaluate this evidence as it applies to the Indian vaccination programme and determine whether booster shots should be rolled out for vulnerable groups, as several countries are doing.