Letter to BS: Accuracy of predictions by exit polls still a challenge

This refers to “A modern-day comedy of errors” (December 9). The exit polls may well have matured over time in improved projection of vote share from sample size to actuals, however, the problem in a highly-segmented electorate lies in deducing the seat share from the vote percentages. In Assembly polls, where the combination of pre-poll allies has closely associated regional factors, is amenable to more rational analysis. In the 2004 Lok Sabha polls, the AIADMK had a 30 per cent vote share and drew a blank but in 2009, with 23 per cent vote share, it won nine seats. Let us therefore take the present clutch of exit poll predictions merely as another exercise in an attempt to improve the hit rate.

R Narayanan  Navi Mumbai

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