So far so good

The monsoon has progressed well, but uncertainty persists

The progress of the south-west monsoon, which has run halfway through its four-month course, has been by and large satisfactory. However, uncertainties persist — mainly because, after a promising start in June that saw surplus rainfall, precipitation has been 14 per cent short of the normal in July. In addition, the met office has predicted that rainfall in the remaining months of August and September will be 10 per cent below the normal. The cumulative, area-weighted rainfall in June and July has been five per cent below the long-term average; for the monsoon as a whole, the shortfall could range between five per cent and 10 per cent. Technically, this would be deemed to be below normal.

However, a shortfall of this order is not a matter of concern for either agriculture or replenishing the water reservoirs, or even for sustaining the flows in rain-fed rivers. The water stock in most reservoirs is comfortable and crop sowing has been progressing well in all areas barring some rain-starved pockets. In part, this is because the monsoon has fared well so far when it comes to the spread of the rains over space and time, which matters more than their total quantum. After hitting Kerala on time, the monsoon advanced rapidly to cover almost the entire country before the end of June, against the normal time taken till mid-July. This, coupled with nearly 11 per cent surplus rainfall in June, had provided sufficient soil moisture for crop sowing in most parts.

It is, of course, true that regions such as Gujarat, pockets of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, and the eastern and north-eastern states, had to wait till July for rains as well as for crop planting. But a redeeming feature of this year’s monsoon is that many of the areas that remained rain-deficient in June received good showers in July, though the total countrywide rainfall in the second month was short of the normal by over 14 per cent. Most parts of the country, including the north-eastern region that is still rain-deficient, have collected enough moisture for crop seeding. This is reflected in the preliminary crop sowing data gathered by the agriculture ministry. While the area under paddy and cash crops (like cotton and sugarcane) is more than last year’s – another indication of adequate moisture availability – the sowing of coarse cereals has suffered. The final crop outlook, which influences the prices of food and other agro-commodities, will also depend on non-monsoon factors like the level of minimum support prices that the government announces, international price swings, policies concerning imports and exports, and monetary policy. On most of these issues, the ball is in the government’s court.