Where's your data Mr Pai?

For all the education and healthcare on offer, mass conversions to Christianity did not happen in the past, nor is it likely now

A column on religion from an unlikely source, a voice better known for opinions about corporate matters than conversions, was widely tweeted on Saturday. This is not surprising as the writer's opinion was far from bland. 

“There is no doubt that large scale conversions have been taking place across India, accelerating over the last five years led by evangelical groups from the West. The North East has been converted, with Arunachal and Tripura being now targeted. Tribal belts across Odisha, Jharkhand, Gujarat and MP have seen large-scale conversions for several years now,” said T V Mohandas Pai in an opinion piece in the Economic Times.

If one focusses on the facts, the piece is unpalatable. It shows no data to support its conclusion, admitting even that the 2011 census figures are yet to be released. It is largely based on anecdotal evidence, and figures are extrapolated from personal experience.

“Some evangelical groups have claimed that 9-12% of undivided AP has been converted…. Some pastors have tweeted with glee about converts reaching 60 million… over 30% of drivers have converted over the last 5 years,” it said.

There is no reason to dismiss a man’s personal experience. But there is little to suggest that a series of conversions based on the promise of free medical care and education would now begin, as suggested in his piece.

Consider this. In this past, Christian missionaries were often the only source of schooling, and they often ran the few modern hospitals in the country. Through the 1800s and till 1947 then, Christianity should have been a very attractive alternative to the dominant religions in every Indian region.
 

However, the figures for the Christian population in India post-independence is in single digits, around 2%. This despite the fact that India’s share in the global economy had dropped significantly - turning from a major economic power accounting for a quarter of global GDP, to being reduced to a supplier of raw material for the empire. By 1940, just a few years before independence, India’s contribution to global GDP had dropped to less than 6%.

India as whole, and by extension its people grew poorer during the time, but a mass movement towards Christianity was not a reality, for all the education and healthcare on offer.

Is it not strange to assume that a mass conversion conspiracy (even if such a thing exists) would be more successful now, when much of the Western world is in decline and the East, including India, is rising?

It would be good to remember the words of another Infoscian - NR Narayana Murthy. His most famous refrain (which in the current context is especially appropriate) was - “In God we trust, the rest must come with data”.

(Sachin P Mampatta writes on equity markets for Business Standard)