Error of judgement by the central govt has led to this: Prithviraj Chavan

Prithviraj Chavan, in an interview with Aditi Phadnis, talks about Maharashtra govt's handling of coronavirus outbreak and the challenges ahead for the state

Former Maharashtra Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan defends the state government, in which his party, the Congress, is a partner, on charges of laxity in handling the COVID-19 crisis. Excerpts from an interview with Aditi Phadnis
 

Maharashtra was one of the first states to see a spike in COVID-19 cases. The disease spread to other parts of India because the Maharashtra government was lax in its handling and did not take the pandemic seriously enough initially. Why was this?
 

It is not true that the Maharashtra government was lax about the coronavirus epidemic. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared Corona as a global pandemic on March 11, 2020. The Maharashtra government began restrictions within 48 hours.

First, they declared closure of schools in Pimpri-Chinchwad and Pune and also ordered closing down of crowded places like malls, gyms and swimming pools. On March 14, the government closed down all the schools and colleges in four large metropolitan cities.

On the 18th, the restrictions were further tightened. Internal traffic was restricted and a limit was put on the number of employees in each office (only 5 per cent). On March 21, the entire state was put  under a lockdown. The bus services, the local trains and the metro services were suspended.

Mumbai is a large city and is also the financial capital. It has many establishments under the supervision of the central government, e.g. the international airport, the banks and the financial institutions, the ports and the local suburban trains. They are controlled by various central ministries. Getting their concurrence took a little time.
 

However one major mistake for a spike in the positive cases was the failure to impose quarantine on the individual passengers who landed in Mumbai (and other international airports) on their own. The authorities took a simple undertaking from the arriving passengers that they would quarantine themselves after reaching home. This just did not happen. And most of the positive cases in Maharashtra are because of the people who had recently travelled from the problem countries. What is strange is that while we quarantined all the passengers who were brought home by government aircraft, whether Air Force or Air India, from Wuhan, Rome and Tehran etc., we did not force quarantine on incoming passengers who flew in on their own.

Mumbai gets the highest number of international flights (800 per day) and the highest number of international passengers (about 16,000 per day). This error of judgement on the part of the central government — the immigration authorities of the home ministry or the health ministry or the ministry of civil aviation, will cost us dearly.
 

What are the specific inputs that you, a party that is part of a relatively inexperienced government, provided to the chief minister? Such situations demand decisive, aggressive action. What did you, as a party with long experience of running governments, advise?
 

Maharashtra has a three-party coalition government. All decisions are taken in consultation with all the three partners. There is a coordination mechanism. Recent decisions were taken in the Cabinet, as well as at the political level. Although the Congress Party is numerically the smallest group in the coalition, we are a national party with large experience of governance, both in the cabinet and outside.
 

We must, however, appreciate the unprecedented challenge thrown up by the coronavirus pandemic. It has to be met at three levels — first, there is the all important medical challenge of saving lives, which requires rapid ramp up of testing kits, emergency hospitals, ICU beds and ventilators as also trained medical professionals — doctors, nurses and paramedics; second, there is a major economic upheaval. Saving the economy from a complete collapse is a huge challenge — the daily wagers have to be fed, permanent jobs have to be saved, wherever possible, the factories have to be kept functioning, and most important, while the economy will certainly slide into a recession, we should prevent a depression. Economy must bounce back to a robust rate of growth of the GDP as soon as possible; And then there is the third challenge and that is at the social level. The lockdown has created unprecedented social tensions and law and order problems.

The persons in the unorganised sector with no social safety net will literally starve unless some efficient ways are found to reach some sustenance to them. There will be a huge financial cost. These challenges can only be overcome if there is a complete unity of purpose in the ruling alliance in the state as well as a healthy dialogue with the opposition parties across the aisle. There is a Bharatiya Janata Party government at the Centre. Unless they fully and sincerely cooperate with the state government, we as a nation may not be able to meet the onerous challenge that we face.
 

The state's lockdown is now complete, but it will be at a cost. The state's finances were never healthy to start with. How will the government balance its books?
 

There will be a heavy price to pay on account of the complete lockdown. Contraction of the economy will reduce revenues. The required stimulus package, both at the central level and at the state level will cost the exchequer hugely. The informal economy will be especially hit hard. They will have to be supported with a huge stimulus. Every sector — the daily wage earner, the small businessman, self-employed person, shopkeeper, small and medium enterprises and even the larger industries, all will require state support.
 

There is naturally a debate on the size of the stimulus package that we would need. Only yesterday, the Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, announced a stimulus package of Rs 1.7 trillion ($22 billion). Let us compare what other large economies have done. Only a few days back, the US Senate passed a stimulus package of $2 trillion. Considering the size of the US economy, which is about $20 trillion, their stimulus works out to about 10 per cent of the GDP. The UK, with the size of its economy at $2.6 trillion, has announced a package of $410 billion including a loan guarantee component of $330 billion, which works out to 16 per cent of its GDP. Even Germany’s initial package of $810 billion, works out to 22 per cent of the German GDP of $3.7 trillion. In comparison, India’s $22 billion package is just about 1 per cent of India’s GDP of $2.8 trillion. India must reach a figure of 10 per cent of its current GDP. This would mean an ultimate stimulus package of $280 billion or about Rs 21 trillion. So, we certainly have a long way to go. Of course, how to utilise this money effectively will be another question.
 

Most cities in Maharashtra, especially Mumbai, have a big floating population. Now that all these people, who performed a service away from home are returning, what are the kind of tensions you see: both from the gap in labour and the demands they will make in their native places?
 

Mumbai has a large migrant labour population. People come from the hinterlands of Maharashtra and also from poorer states in the North. I talked about the social tensions that the lockdown will create. On the one hand, there is a feeling that migrant workers have taken jobs away from the local population, and therefore there is even a demand for up to 80 per cent reservation for local people. But the migrant labourers invariably work in the low-paying jobs involving physical labour. Local people do not take up these menial jobs. When migrant labourers leave for their hometowns, there would be a crisis in Mumbai. We will have to ensure that migrant labourers do not leave even if they are asked to stay at home and they have no jobs. We will have to ensure that they are paid minimum subsistence wages and there is cooked food available to them because they don’t have their own kitchens. The taxi and rickshaw drivers, dock workers, mathaadi kamgars in the mandis, the vegetable sellers and the milkmen, all are required for smooth functioning of Mumbai. Anyone who thinks that departure of migrant labour will be good for Mumbai is being very short sighted. And also when they go to their native places, mostly rural areas, they will have to be supported with a hefty MGNREGA programme.
 

Is it time now for the Maharashtra government to launch a massive subsidy plan for food, essentials, transport and other things? Whenever the epidemic is past, is the government geared to seeing a return of labour and the problems that movement will cause?
 

After the epidemic gets over, rehabilitating the economy, and returning people back to gainful employment, will be a humongous challenge. There will have to be a massive subsidy programme — food subsidy, transport subsidy, housing and rent subsidy, help to self employed to restart their businesses. Part of the central government’s stimulus package will fund this. We are asking for deferment of loan instalments, EMIs and interest payments during the crisis period, but after the epidemic ends, these payments to the financial institutions would have to be made good (The RBI announced some reliefs for borrowers on Friday). Only then shopkeepers, small businesses, and SMEs would be able to restart their businesses, and re employ workers.