Is Congress running out of steam in Assam?

Congress can ill afford to lose Assam in 2016 lest that might further bolster the anti-Congress wave that's currently sweeping India

The Congress party that displayed spectacular performances in state elections in Assam for three successive times – in 2001, 2006 and 2011 — is now struggling hard to keep its house in order. Following an open revolt against the leadership of chief minister Tarun Gogoi by a section of legislators and heavyweight leader Himanta Biswa Sarma who joined BJP, Congress is now in a fire-fighting mode. With the Assembly election in the state due next year, it is a matter of worry for the party and its ‘high command’. Congress can ill afford to lose Assam lest that might further bolster the anti-Congress wave that’s currently sweeping India.  

From offering ministerial berths to some disgruntled MLAs, to upgrading the rank of few to parliamentary secretaries and also suspending few others from the party, the Congress is in a damage-control mode in Assam to salvage whatever chances it can before the polls.

Out of the three terms that it had been in power, Congress’ best performance was in the last election in 2011 when it won 78 seats in the 126-member Assam Assembly, nullifying predictions of many political pundits of a hung verdict. The win also helped Tarun Gogoi script history as he became the longest serving chief minister of the state. The party had won 71 seats and 53 seats in 2001 and in 2006 respectively.

After tasting the high in 2011, the downhill journey for the party soon began thereafter. From 2012 onwards, many MLAs started questioning the leadership of Gogoi, the person who led the party to victory for three terms on the trot. Headed by former legislator Himanta Biswa Sarma, who till sometime back was Gogoi’s right-hand man, the anti-Gogoi camp put demand for ‘leadership change’. Many say Sarma fell out with Gogoi after the latter introduced his US-educated son in politics, who is now a Lok Sabha MP from Assam.  

Post the electoral drubbing in 2014 general election till early this year, the party was completely in tatters in Assam as dissident activities took to the centre-stage. Government functioning came to a standstill as both Gogoi-camp and Himanta-camp were spending more time and energy in shuttle diplomacies between Guwahati and New Delhi to impress upon their ‘high command’.

After the ‘high command’ decided to throw its weight behind Gogoi, Sarma resigned from the cabinet and was seen hobnobbing with the BJP leaders to don a new avatar. Finally in August this year, he joined BJP, jolting the Congress’ boat. If people’s perception is anything to go by, Sarma was probably the best performing minister in Gogoi’s cabinet. He held two key ministries – health and education. In the meantime, Gogoi reshuffled his Cabinet and included few dissident MLAs, with an attempt to weaken the dissident camp; an objective which he could partially achieve, though that didn’t douse the flames completely.

The day Sarma returned to Assam from Delhi after announcing he was joining the BJP, many legislators from his camp were seen receiving him at the airport, with few even speaking out against the Congress party before the media. The party soon served show-cause notices to few of them and suspended others from the party. In a stop-gap arrangement to stop any exodus from the party to BJP, Gogoi included many of the dissident MLAs (other than those served notices or suspended) as parliamentary secretaries.

On the other hand, soon after Sarma joined BJP, the party’s fortunes grew as they now had a strong orator amongst them, who also knew where to hit the Congress to hurt it most. Piggybacking on Sarma’s persona, BJP soon took the fight right to Gogoi’s doorstep by organising a well-attended rally in Titabor, Gogoi’s hometown on October 4.

The failure to put up a united fight had cost the Congress dearly in 2014 general elections in Assam and it would not like to see a repeat of the same in the upcoming Assembly election. Gogoi’s carrot and stick approach is aimed at preventing anyone from following Sarma’s footsteps. However, as of now Congress’ house seems far from being in order.