Why Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury's elevation is good news for Bengal BJP

Chowdhury, the leader of the Congress in the Lok Sabha, is a sharp critic of Mamata Banerjee. Banerjee recently sought the Congress' support to help stop the BJP's rise in West Bengal

The appointment of Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, a five-time MP from the Berhampore constituency, as leader of the Congress in the Lok Sabha opens up new possibilities for both his party and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Prior to his selection, the party had always opted for the president of the state unit, in case of West Bengal, to lead its members in the Lok Sabha. Both Pranab Mukherjee and Priya Ranjan Dasmunshi were the then state unit president when they were named leader of the Congress in the Lok Sabha. Chowdhury had stepped down as the Congress’ West Bengal unit president in 2018.

Like in 2014, the Congress this year, too, couldn’t recommend Chowdhury as leader of the Opposition as the party fell two short of winning at least of 10 per cent of the Lok Sabha seats to claim the spot. The party this Lok Sabha polls managed to win only 52 seats.

Known as a “fighter” in political circles who doesn’t shy away from speaking his mind, Chowdhury had been instrumental in forging the Congress-Left Front alliance in West Bengal in 2016. Incidentally, that alliance resulted in the Left Front being replaced by the Congress as the main Opposition party following the Assembly election that year.

Last week, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee called for support from the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPM) and the Congress to help stop the BJP’s rise in West Bengal.

The Congress’ state unit is of the view that although there can be some resentment or bitterness among anti-BJP parties in the state, the Congress will not shy away from supporting Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC), if the situation arises. “There is no stated policy on this matter at the central level, but our fight is against sectarian forces trying to divide the country. Depending on the situation, and if the need is so, we may support the TMC or the Left Front or any other party in its struggle against such communal forces,” said Abdul Mannan, a Congress leader.

Party workers believe that since Chowdhury has now been elevated to lead the Congress at the national level, he will have a bigger say in the Congress’ decision-making process in West Bengal. However, it needs to be seen if Chowdhury, a sharp critic of Banerjee, answers her call.

Political observers believe that while the Congress will now consolidate its position in the Berhampore and the South Malda constituencies — from where Chowdhury won by 356,567 votes and Abu Hasem Khan emerged victorious by a margin of 164,111 votes, respectively — the party will focus to regain its hold in North Malda, Jangipur, Basirhat, and Mursidabad.

“This may bring them into a direct confrontation with the TMC where Banerjee’s party has been able to come up strongly,” political observer Biswanath Chakrabarty noted.

And, in case of a confrontation between the Congress the TMC, the BJP stands to gain the most.

The BJP’s state leadership believes that the Congress’ move to regain its hold will lead to a division of Muslim votes in the above said constituencies which are Muslim-dominated, and if the BJP is able to obtain at least 70 per cent of the Bengali votes in these seats, it stands a better chance of winning in these areas in the 2021 Assembly elections.

“Chowdhury is a known die-hard opponent of Mamata Banerjee and I don’t see much of a prospect of an alliance between the Congress and the TMC in the state. They may collaborate to beat up our workers, kill us or intimidate us, but I don’t see any political alliance between Chowdhury and Banerjee,” said Joyprakash Majumder, vice president of the BJP’s West Bengal unit.

On the other hand, the BJP stands to gain further with the Congress’ decision to elevate Chowdhury. Before the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, there were rumours of Chowdhury planning to switch over to the BJP. “He certainly can’t do so now,” Majumder said.

BJP sources revealed that while the party was in talks with Chowdhury, other Congress leaders, who belonged to another faction in the Congress, were considering to jump ship. But these leaders were reluctant to switch their allegiance if Chowdhury joined the BJP.

Now, with Chowdhury unlikely to leave the Congress, the BJP feels it will have more switchovers from that party.

“We think that it will further dilute the Congress in the state, no matter it forms any alliance with any others,” Majumder added.

A voracious speaker, Chowdhury caught the attention of the Congress’ high command with his pitted attacks on Prime Minister Narendra Modi, even as his best oratory that shot him to fame was his fierce verbal assaults on the TMC government over the Saradha and other chit fund scams.