COVID-19 crisis can push 40 cr informal sector workers in India deeper into poverty: ILO

The COVID-19 crisis has the potential to push around 40 crore informal sector workers in India deeper into poverty, with the lockdown and other containment measures affecting jobs and earnings, an International Labour Organisation (ILO) report said on Tuesday.

India has imposed a three-week lockdown till April 14 to contain the pandemic. As per ILO, India is among the countries less equipped to handle the situation.

"COVID-19 is already affecting tens of millions of informal workers. In India, Nigeria and Brazil, the number of workers in the informal economy affected by the lockdown and other containment measures is substantial," the ILO report released in Geneva said.

"In India, with a share of almost 90 per cent of people working in the informal economy, about 400 million workers in the informal economy are at risk of falling deeper into poverty during the crisis.

"Current lockdown measures in India, which are at the high end of the University of Oxford's COVID-19 Government Response Stringency Index, have impacted these workers significantly, forcing many of them to return to rural areas," it said.

The report further said countries experiencing fragility, protracted conflict, recurrent natural disasters or forced displacement will face a multiple burden due to the pandemic.

"They are less equipped to prepare for and respond to COVID-19 as access to basic services, especially health and sanitation, is limited; decent work, social protection and safety at work are not a given; their institutions are weak; and social dialogue is impaired or absent," it added.

The ILO also noted that the pandemic is having a catastrophic effect on working hours and earnings globally.

The new ILO report highlights some of the worst affected sectors and regions, and outlines policies to mitigate the crisis.

It found that the crisis is expected to wipe out 6.7 per cent of working hours globally in the second quarter of 2020 -- equivalent to 195 million full-time workers.

Large reductions are foreseen in the Arab states, (8.1 per cent, equivalent to 5 million full-time workers), Europe, (7.8 per cent, or 12 million full-time workers) and Asia and the Pacific (7.2 per cent, 125 million full-time workers).

Huge losses are expected across different income groups but especially in upper-middle income countries (7 per cent, 100 million full-time workers). This far exceeds the effects of the 2008-9 financial crisis.

The sectors most at risk include accommodation and food services, manufacturing, retail, and business and administrative activities.

The eventual increase in global unemployment during 2020 will depend substantially on future developments and policy measures.

There is a high risk that the end-of-year figure will be significantly higher than the initial ILO projection of 25 million, it said.

More than four out of five people (81 per cent) in the global workforce of 3.3 billion are currently affected by full or partial workplace closures.

"Workers and businesses are facing catastrophe, in both developed and developing economies," ILO Director-General Guy Ryder said. "We have to move fast, decisively, and together. The right, urgent, measures, could make the difference between survival and collapse."