Skymet rejects official IMD forecast of likely drought

Sees rains at 102% of long-term average; positive Indian Ocean dipole could help offset the El Niño impact

Rejecting the projections for a drought by the government’s meteorological office, the country’s only private weather forecaster, Skymet said there would be a good monsoon season this year, as the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) counters the El Niño weather event.

The outlook by Skymet should help allay concerns of farmers who have already been hit hard by the unseasonal rains earlier this year, sending them on edge ever since the government’s forecast of India’s first drought in six years.

Skymet, which says its predictions have been correct for the past three years, forecast rains at 102 per cent of the long-term average over the June-September monsoon season, versus Indian Meteorological Department’s (IMD’s) 88 per cent.

“The El Niño threat remains, we do not deny that,” Skymet’s chief meteorologist, G P Sharma, said. “But the positive IOD effect could bail us out.”

Partly due to the emergence of the El Niño, or the rise of sea-surface temperature in the Pacific, that leads to dry weather in Asia, India’s monsoon this year arrived five days later than expected on Friday.

Sharma is hopeful a “positive IOD” this year would slightly offset the impact of the El Niño.

The IOD phenomenon is characterised by higher sea-surface temperature in the Indian Ocean. According to Skymet, a positive IOD creates a barrier in the eastern Indian Ocean and all the southwesterly winds blow towards the Indian sub-continent, causing rain but leading to drought in parts of Indonesia and Australia.

In the years 1967, 1977, 1997 and 2006, a positive IOD brought adequate rain to India despite the emergence of the El Niño, Sharma said.

Some IMD officials, however, said chances of a positive IOD were slim and El Niño was gaining ground. In 2009, the El Niño contributed to India's worst drought in four decades.

Farmers would be hoping Skymet’s prediction comes true as about half of India’s farmland lacks irrigation. Agriculture accounts for about 15 per cent of the $2 trillion economy while three-fifths of the country’s population depends on farming for their livelihood.

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has sought to dismiss fears of a drought, saying rainfall is likely to be deficient only in regions with good irrigation facilities and there were enough grain stocks to keep food prices under check.