Statsguru: From net-zero target to forest cover, India's climate standing

The Emissions Gap Report 2022 showed India's per capita carbon dioxide emissions in 2030 will be nearly the same as its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target

The Global Climate Budget 2022, released at The 2022 United Nations Climate Change Conference or COP27, indicates that India will record a higher rise in carbon emissions this year than other major countries. As per the report, India’s carbon dioxide emissions are expected to rise 6 per cent in 2022 compared to last year, while the US is expected to witness a 1.5 per cent increase. The European Union and China, on the other hand, would witness a decline (chart 1).

While the short-term outlook may seem gloomy, India is expected to perform better in the medium term. The Emissions Gap Report 2022 released by the United Nations Environment Programme at COP 27 showed India’s per capita carbon dioxide emissions in 2030 will be nearly the same as its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target. All other major G20 economies, barring Indonesia, are expected to breach their NDC target if the current policies are pursued. For the G20 countries, the carbon dioxide emission is expected to be 7.3 tonnes per person, against the NDC target of 6.9 tonnes per person (chart 2). Analysis by Business Standard shows that India has added more forest cover compared to most other countries in the G20.

While India’s forest cover increased by 3.8 per cent between 2010 and 2020, only China and the United Kingdom could add more (chart 3). However, despite these achievements, India has set one of the farthest goals for net-zero emissions. India plans to reach the net-zero goal by 2070, whereas neighbouring China has set a deadline of 2060. The European Union, the US and the UK have set a 2050 deadline for net zero (chart 4).

A significant step towards achieving this goal is a transition towards clean energy. The government, earlier this year, had set a target of having 50 per cent installed capacity from renewable sources by 2030. It seems to have done well in this regard. The installed capacity for renewables was 29 per cent as of September 30 (chart 5).

Five years ago, India’s installed capacity in renewables was half of what it is today. However, despite an increasing share in installed capacity, India’s power generation remains largely coal-dependent. Renewable sources contributed only 11.9 per cent to the total generation, whereas coal’s share was 68.5 per cent (Chart 6).