Wheat output in FY24 may decline by 1-2 mn tonnes due to untimely rains

FCI has procured 700,000 tonnes wheat so far, up from 200,000 tonnes last year

India’s wheat production in FY24 might go down by 1-2 million tonnes due to the recent unseasonal rains, a senior government official said on Friday. A similar estimate was made by a private study commissioned by flour millers.

However, overall production, according to the government official, would still be in the range of 112 million tonnes, as predicted earlier.

The study commissioned by the roller flour millers and conducted by Agriwatch, an initiative of Indian Agribusiness Systems Ltd, put wheat production in the 2023-24 crop season at 103 million tonnes after accounting for the recent unseasonal rains

This production before the rains was projected to be about 104 million tonnes, which implies that untimely rains may have shaved off 1-1.3 million tonnes of wheat output this year.

This number is different from that projected by the government, which in its second advance estimate, released in mid-February, said that wheat production in FY24 is projected to be over 112 million tonnes.

Top central government officials had been claiming that unseasonal rains wouldn't bring about a significant reduction in this estimate.

“There was a difference in wheat production projected by the government and industry last year. However, this year, there are some commonalities in crop estimates. The first is that there is 3-5 per cent increase in wheat acreage, the second is production loss due to untimely rains and hailstorms would be about 1-2 million tonnes and the third is that there would be an additional 5-5.5 million tonne production over the last year,” Subodh Singh, additional secretary in the food ministry, said at the release function.

The Centre's production estimate for FY23 was 107.7 million tonnes.

“Whatever figure you take, we are fairly confident that wheat production this year, even after accounting for the unseasonal rains, will be around 5-5.5 million tonnes more than last year,” Singh said.

He said due to the banning of exports and higher annual production, the total availability of wheat this year in the market was almost 10 million tonnes more than last fiscal.

Food Corporation of India Chairman Ashok Meena, who was present at the programme, said that the government's wheat procurement at minimum support price (MSP) is underway and about 700,000 tonnes have been lifted so far, higher than 200,000 tonnes a year ago.

He said the Centre is considering requests from Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana governments.

"We hope government procurement will be better this year. We will have sufficient supply of stock to meet the PDS and market intervention," he said.