Stock Market LIVE Updates: Est. Vs. Actual for Q3FY25: NII – Inline ; PPoP – Inline ; PAT – BEAT
Changes in Estimates post Q3FY25: FY25E/FY26E/FY27E (%): NII : 1.1/1.3/1.3; PPoP: 1.5/1.2/0.7; PAT: 2.7/1.2/0.6
Current Valuation: 4.7x Sep’26E ABV; Earlier Valuation: 4.0x Sep’26E ABV
Current TP: Rs 9,050/share; Earlier TP: Rs 7,655/share
Recommendation: We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.
Company Guidance and Outlook: The management has guided AUM/Earnings growth of 25 per cent/20-23 per cent in FY26, with credit costs remaining at <2 per cent. We believe the ambitious target spelt out by the company in its LRS 25-29 would be achievable given the management’s impeccable execution prowess.
The decision on the management transition (expected in Q4FY25) would remain a key monitorable.
With CoF having peaked out, we expect NIMs to remain stable until the rate cut cycle, with the management prioritising protecting NIMs over growth. The management expects operating leverage to play out, thereby gradually improving Opex ratios. The company will continue to invest in branches.
However, headcount addition would be meaningfully lower. With asset quality stress receding, we expect credit costs to moderate, thereby gradually supporting earnings growth for BAF.
We expect RoA/RoE to remain steady between 4.4-4.5 per cent/20-23 per cent over FY25-27E.