US sees window for new push to break deadlock in Lebanon, ease conflict

US Secretary of state Blinken stressed US commitment to a diplomatic solution to implement the UN resolution, allowing civilians on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border to return to their homes

With Israel's sabotage and military operations in Lebanon taking out many of Hezbollah's senior leaders, some in Washington and elsewhere believe there may be a window for a new push to break the political deadlock in Lebanon to try to ease escalating war.

To that end, Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke by phone separately Friday with acting Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati and parliament speaker Nabhi Berri about the need to resolve the situation, the State Department said.

Earlier in the week, Blinken talked with his Saudi, Qatari and French counterparts about how a resolution particularly the election of a new Lebanese president might reduce tensions in the Middle East by getting Hezbollah to move its forces away from Israel's northern border to the line set out in a UN Security Council resolution ending the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah.

It's clear that the people of Lebanon have an interest, a strong interest, in the state asserting itself and taking responsibility for the country and its future," Blinken told reporters Friday in Laos. "The presidency has been vacant for two years now, and for the Lebanese people, having a head of state would be very important.

He said Lebanon's future is for its people to decide and no one else, including any outside actor, whether it's the United States, Israel, or any of the many actors in the region.

The US and others have been pressing for years for an end to the political deadlock in Lebanon to no avail. The country's sectarian power-sharing system has always been prone to stalemate. The US blames the two-year presidential vacuum on resistance to compromise by Iran-backed Hezbollah, which is considered a legitimate political party in Lebanon and has been part of its government for nearly two decades despite being designated a terrorist organization by the US, Israel and others.

After the term of former President Michel Aoun ended in October 2022, Lebanon's deeply divided parliament met several times to elect a successor and failed every time. Hezbollah has been backing Sleiman Frangieh, a Christian politician allied with the Shiite group.

The opposing faction has put forward a series of names, but the man widely seen as Frangieh's main competition although he has not officially declared his candidacy is the Lebanese army commander, Gen. Joseph Aoun, who is generally seen as close to the US

In the meantime, the worsening political paralysis and stalled measures to alleviate a crippling economic crisis have plunged three-quarters of the population into poverty.

But now, US officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss current Biden administration thinking, said there may be a window for movement in the wake of the militant group's recent degradation at the hands of Israel.

That view is not universally shared in Washington, with some officials arguing that Hezbollah is too entrenched in Lebanon's political scene, its military and its civil and social services for its influence to be eradicated. Yet, even the skeptics are willing to give it a try, officials said.

As he made his way home from Laos, Blinken spoke with Mikati and Berri to reaffirm the importance of stabilizing the political crisis.

Blinken stressed US commitment to a diplomatic solution to implement the UN resolution, allowing civilians on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border to return to their homes, and the need to fill the presidential vacancy through democratic means that reflect the will of the Lebanese people for a stable, prosperous, and independent Lebanon, the State Department said in near identical statements.

America's top diplomat said similar in discussions over the past week with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed Al Thani, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty and French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot.

What I'm getting from these conversations is a strong desire not only on the part of the many countries that are concerned about Lebanon, but especially the Lebanese themselves to actually see the state stand up, assert itself, take responsibility for the lives of its citizens, Blinken said earlier in Laos.

He is expected to attend an international conference on Lebanon hosted by France later this month, US officials said.

The UN resolution, whose terms have never fully been enforced, called for Israeli forces to fully withdraw from southern Lebanon after a monthlong war with Hezbollah in 2006, while the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers would be the exclusive armed presence in the area.

Ed Gabriel, president of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a nonprofit that aims to build stronger US-Lebanon ties, said the group has high regard for Aoun, the Lebanese army commander, and his leadership of the only fully functioning institution in Lebanon.

We do not think it is in the interest of Lebanon for outside parties to weigh in on the country's sovereign right to elect their own president, Gabriel said. There is an opportunity right now for Lebanon's parliamentarians to convene and elect a clean, competent, and reform-oriented president who can form a government that can steer Lebanon through what is a dangerous but critical phase.