40% of Indians face flood risk if temperature rises by 2 degrees: Report

1 out of 3 people globally will be threatened by flooding in a 1.5 degrees Celsius warming scenario, which could happen as early as 2030, says report

Nearly 19 per cent of India's population is at risk of floods at present and if the temperature increases to 2 degrees C, 40 per cent of Indians face this risk. And in case of a 3.5 degrees Celsius warming scenario, 54 per cent of a population will face the risk of floods, according to the Marsh McLennan new report.

The report titled 'Staying Above Water', explores the scope of systemic responses to rising flood risk. It highlights that 1 out of 3 people globally will be threatened by flooding in a 1.5 degrees Celsius warming scenario, which could happen as early as 2030.

It further says that 41 per cent of power generation capacity, 37 per cent of international airport seats, and 52 per cent of international port outflows globally will be threatened by flooding in a 2 degree C warming scenario, which could manifest as early as 2050.

One-third of the world’s urban areas and nearly 45 per cent of the population will be threatened by flooding in a 3.5 degree C warming scenario, which could happen by the end of this century, the report said.

The report highlights that the global economic losses from floods have been on the rise, increasing from $504 billion in the 15-year period between 1992 and 2006 to $729 billion between 2007 and 2021 (inflation-adjusted 2021 dollars).

"Recent disasters and rising losses expose the failures of current flood risk management strategies. Neither high-income nor low-income countries are capable of coping with current threat levels, much less changing future risk trajectories" the report said.

According to the report, this flood risk is pervasive and is set to increase. 

The report further adds that only 17 per cent of global losses were insured between 2007 and 2021, with the biggest protection gaps in developing countries, where insurance is often not available. In emerging markets, only 5 per cent of economic losses from floods over the past 10 years were insured, compared with 34 per cent in developed economies. 

The report points to how recent disasters have exposed the failures of current flood risk management strategies in both high- and low-income countries. 

The share of urban areas, rural areas, and infrastructure threatened by flooding is approximately set to double in a 2 degree C warming scenario compared to today, according to the Marsh McLennan Flood Risk Index.

Sighting the instance of deadly floods in New Zealand, and California in 2023, the report raises alarm on the rising cases of deadly floods across the world in the past two years.

According to the report, the danger of flooding will be particularly severe in coastal areas, with many shoreline communities

already facing an existential threat. 

"By 2050, 570 coastal cities with a total population of more than 800 million people are expected to be impacted by sea level rise."

Raising the concern around the rising risk of flooding, the report discusses risk drivers, impacts, and inadequacies of current risk management strategies, offering a rationale for urgent action.

The report makes a case for transforming flood risk management by deploying a portfolio of solutions in a forward-looking, cross-cutting, and collaborative manner.

"Governments, businesses, and society must shift from a responsive to an anticipatory approach to flood risk. Rethinking resilience requires a range of tools applied in a cross-cutting, collaborative, and forward-looking manner, both at pace and at scale," the report said.