Max temperatures may rise 2-3 degrees Celsius in North India in 3 days: IMD

May not have an impact on standing wheat crop as was being feared

After a relatively moderate increase in temperatures so far in March, peppered with unseasonal rains that flattened the standing crop in several states, maximum temperatures over Northwest, West and Central India might rise by 2-3 degrees over the next three days, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday.

But this rise could be short-lived, and maximum temperatures are likely to fall by 2-3 degrees thereafter, especially in the wheat growing regions of Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh in Northwest India.

“In Northwest India, the gradual rise in maximum temperatures by 2-3°C is very likely over the next three days, followed by a 2-3°C fall thereafter,” the IMD said in its daily report.

It had a similar forecast for Central India.

The met predicted a gradual rise in temperatures by 2-3°C over the next two days with no change thereafter in Gujarat. For Maharashtra, the IMD predicted a fall in temperature by 2-3°C after two days.

This fall could be on account of another round of hailstorms and thunderstorms that is expected on March 14-15 and is likely to continue till March 19-20 in parts of North, Central and western India.

Back-to-back cloudy weather, unseasonal rains and thunderstorms also mean that temperatures in the early part of March may not impact the standing wheat crop in north and central India, as was being feared in earlier.

“According to the weather patterns so far, March will pass through with heightened early pre-monsoon activity in several parts of the country. This should keep a check on any unusual or sharp rise in temperatures,” Mahesh Palawat, vice president-meteorology and climate change in private weather forecasting agency Skymet, told Business Standard.

Already, several government officials and experts have said the temperature increase thus far hasn't been severe enough to significantly damage the standing wheat crop, but temperatures in March are critical.

“So far, the rise in temperatures have not been sharp enough to warrant any scare and whatever damage might have happened due to the spike in february temperature is difficult to quantify. But temperatures from here on will hold the key as grain filling has started in late sown wheat crop in North India,” said K K Singh, ex-head of IMD’s agromet division.

Earlier this month, the Centre stated that the high powered panel constituted by it to  monitor the wheat crop has found that as on date (March 2) the condition of the crop in all the major growing states is ‘normal’.

“The committee assessed that as on date the wheat crop condition is normal in all major wheat growing states,” an official statement had said.

The panel, which has senior officials from the department of agriculture, Indian Council of Agriculture Research (ICAR), India Meteorological Department (IMD) and State Agriculture Universities, found that about 75 per cent of the area under wheat in Haryana and Punjab was sown early, so the crop won’t be impacted by the spike in temperatures.

Also, in the north-western plains--the major wheat growing regions--around 50 per cent of the area is under terminal heat stress-resistant varieties, the statement said, quoting the panel’s initial findings.

The panel, constituted to monitor the wheat crop in view of the sudden rise in temperatures, will visit the farms regularly and provide timely advisories to cultivators wherever heat stress conditions occur.