Covid-19 pandemic: 80% of Indians may be vaccinated by March 2022

About 40 per cent of India’s adult population will be fully vaccinated by November, largely through indigenous vaccine production, according to a recent Yes Securities report. By January 2022, the analysts estimate, another 20 per cent is likely to be vaccinated, thereby covering 60 per cent of the adult population. Yes Securities further estimated that by the end of this fiscal year (March 2022), about 80 per cent of the adult population will be vaccinated.

"It is pertinent to note that the vaccination threshold for herd immunity, as defined by one of WHO’s chief scientists, is 60‐70 per cent of the total population," the analysts noted. 

“India’s teething troubles of vaccination coverage are likely to persist over the next month, owing to raw material scarcity for domestic manufacture. Shortage, if severe, can dent vaccination drive with 75 million of the population to be prioritised for second dose (who will be due after stipulated seven weeks of first dose), bringing the first dose to a halt and derailing the future vaccination run‐rate,” the analysts cautioned.

However, vaccine production should ramp up, June onwards, given that manufacturers are boosting capacities and the US government is likely to ease export restrictions on vaccines and raw materials following the vaccination of significant native populace, over the next 45 days. Considering that India's adult population of 1 billion will account for the largest market for US vaccines, it estimated that 20‐25 per cent of US vaccine exports will head to India.