China retail sales may top US in 2016

China’s retail sales may outstrip those of the US by reaching 34 trillion yuan ($5 trillion) in 2016, Huang Hai, a former Chinese assistant commerce minister, said today.

The forecast is based on annual growth so far this century of 14.5 per cent in China and 4.6 per cent in the US, Huang said at a forum in Beijing. He’s now an economics official with the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, which advises the nation’s legislature.

China’s economy overtook Japan in the second quarter to become the world’s second largest and is growing at three times the pace of the United States. Stronger Chinese demand may help to sustain world growth by reducing international imbalances in saving and spending.

“China will replace the US in the long run as the number one source of global demand,” said Dariusz Kowalczyk, a Hong Kong-based senior economist at Credit Agricole.

Chinese and US figures for retail sales are calculated differently and China’s ascent to the top spot would be “much later” using comparable data, Kowalczyk said. The Chinese figures include some government spending.

China’s retail sales growth may slow after 2016 to about 10 per cent, with the total annual value exceeding 50 trillion yuan by 2020, Huang said today. The nation will take a “considerable” time to overtake the US in terms of final consumption, combining goods and services, Huang said.