South & NE may get lesser rains than north and central India: IMD

The southwest monsoon may be slightly below normal in southern and northeastern parts of the country in 2018, but normal in the northwestern and central regions, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday.

The region-wise forecast comes with a model error of plus and minus 8 per cent.

Releasing its second stage forecast for the southwest, the met department said that the monsoon season this year is expected to be normal and rainfall is expected to be around 97 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). 

The forecast is with a model error of plus and minus 4 per cent.

Month-wise, IMD said that the rainfall in July is expected to be heavy at 101 per cent of the LPA, while in August it is expected to slightly mellow down at 94 per cent of the LPA. 

The July forecast is with a model error of plus and minus 9 per cent. 

July and August are the most crucial months of the four-month southwest monsoon season as they get the maximum rainfall.

A good rainfall in northern and central parts of the country comprising states like Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh should help major kharif pulses, oilseeds and paddy.

But, below normal showers in southern India, comprising states like Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Kerala, could impact crops grown in these parts that include pulses. 

The impact could be severe-- particularly in Karnataka-- which has been facing back to back droughts. 

In the North-East though, below normal showers might not have a big impact as the overall quantum of rainfall there is more than the rest of India.

However, much would also depend upon on how well the monsoon is distributed from now onwards and the pockets where it remains deficient in or not-well distributed.

“The global climate models indicate conditions over the Pacific likely to continue to be Neutral during most part of the monsoon season and turn to weak El Nino conditions after the monsoon season,” the IMD said in its statement released today.

Meanwhile, the southwest monsoon that hit the Kerala coast on Tuesday, three days ahead of schedule, further advanced into some parts of central Arabian Sea, the remaining parts of Kerala, most parts of Coastal Karnataka and some parts of South Interior Karnataka and some more parts of interior Tamil Nadu.

The IMD said that conditions are likely to become favourable with the further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of south Peninsula around 3rd June, while rainfall activity is likely to increase over parts of Maharashtra and Goa from 6th June onwards, leading to the advance over these areas during 6-8th June.