India among countries that will be most 'economically harmed': IPCC report

Report says India will face extreme weathers, water scarcity, health hazards, threat to food security

India will face extreme scenarios emerging from climate change on almost all fronts — from rising sea leve­ls to groundwater scarcity, from extreme weather patterns to a fall in crop production, besides a rise in health hazards. The United Nations Inter­gov­ernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presents this grim pict­ure in the second part of its sixth as­sessment report released on Monday.

Referring to India as one of the countries that will be most “economically harmed” by climate change, the report highlights a risky anomaly of it facing both rising sea levels and water scarcity. “India is one of the most vulnerable countries globally in terms of the population that will be affected by sea-level rise. By the middle of the century, around 35 million people in India could face annual coastal flooding, with 45-50 million at risk by the end of the century,” says the report by the IPCC Working Group (WG)-II.

According to the studies cited by the IPCC, climate change and rising demand would lead to at least 40 per cent of the Indian population living with water scarcity by 2050 compared with about 33 per cent now. It is estimated that both the Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins will witness increased flooding as a result of climate change, particularly if warming crosses 1.5 degrees Celsius.

In August last year, the WG-I had declared a climate emergency and said that under all growth scenarios, the planet’s warming level will touch 1.5 degree Celsius. The WG-II focuses on the impact of climate change on ecosystems, biodiversity and human communities. For WG-II, 270 authors contributed to the report.

This report conclusively says that the world faces unavoidable multiple climate hazards over the next two decades with global warming of 1.5°C.

The dual impact of rising sea levels and ground water scarcity will have a direct impact on the Indian agriculture sector. One of the chapters in the report says that wheat, pulses, coarse and cereal yields could fall almost 9 per by 2050 in the country. In South India, maize production could decrease 17 per cent if emissions are high. “These disruptions to crop production are expected to cause price spikes in India, threatening food affordability, food security and economic growth. Continued climate change will also cause decline in India’s fisheries,” says the report.

Climate change is impacting every part of India, says Anjal Prakash, research director, Bharti Institute of Public Policy, Indian School of Business (ISB). “The Himalayas in the north, coastal areas in the south and the semi-arid region in central India — no part of the country is spared. Urban India is at much greater risk with its increasing share in the country. In the next 15 years, we will see 600 million people being added to urban spaces,” says Prakash, who is also the lead author of the chapter on cities in WG-II.

At the macroeconomic level, too, India stands to lose due to the impact of climate change, caution studies cited in the report. India is economically harmed the most by climate change, with every tonne of carbon dioxide emitted globally costing the country around $86, according to a study cited in the report.

During COP26, the climate change conference in Glasgow last year, India had made a case for having an adaptation fund by the developed world to support the climate hazards faced by developing economies like itself. Developed economies, however, committed to no separate loss-and-damage fund, leading to India issuing a note of “deep disappointment”.

“Developed countries must accept the historical responsibility and provide the financial resources to the developing countries,” India had said.

WG-II experts have reiterated the need for an equitable adaptation across the globe to tackle the ill-effects of climate change. “While there are some efforts on adaptation, the im­pacts are not distributed equally. India, Bangladesh are the most vulnerable although they are not responsible for climate change. This is why equity and justice become very crucial,” Rawshan Begum Ara, visiting associate professor at the Centre for Corporate Sus­tainability & Environmental Finance, Macquarie University, Australia, had said during the conference.

IPCC Sixth Assessment Report Working Group-II

• WG-II focuses on impacts of climate change, looking at ecosystems, biodiversity, and human communities at global and regional levels and adaptation strategies

• India being hailed as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change related impact

• Global sea levels will likely rise 44-76cm this century, in India 35 million face risk of rising sea level related hazards. Economic impact also highest

• Crop production to be hit severely with rising cases of heat waves, drought, floods

• Every tonne of carbon dioxide emission to cost $86 to Indian economy

• Health hazards, especially communicable diseases, instances of widespread flu to increase