Indian Economy

It is time the country had access to a larger and a more varied range of assessments of the Indian economy

Today's Opinion wrap tracks RBI's bank board concerns, India's satellite strides, gaps in economic guidance, China's consumption debate, and a memoir on rural farming journeys

India has been the most resilient large emerging market economy since 2020, and its sizeable forex reserves have helped check currency volatility and reinforce confidence during global shocks, Moody's Ratings said on Tuesday. In a report on emerging market, Moody's said India is well placed to manage future shocks because monetary policy frameworks are clear and predictable, inflation expectations are well anchored, and exchange rates can adjust when needed. Stating that India is "better placed" among emerging market sovereigns to manage future global shock, Moody's said the country would also enter any future periods of stress with strong and accessible buffers. "India's reliance on domestic funding is balanced by deep local markets and sizeable reserves ... Nevertheless, India's relatively high debt burden and weak fiscal balance limit the amount of space available to respond to successive shocks," Moody's added. It said India had made key policy choices that support stability we

PPP-based estimates show India as the world's third-largest economy, highlighting how currency distortions mask real purchasing power, domestic demand strength, and global economic influence

The reading remained above 50, which denotes expansion in activity, while a reading below that signifies contraction

What's needed is a revamped economic architecture predicated on proactive risk management and improved shock absorption

More importantly, the inflation has been kept under control as of now with the government absorbing a large part of the crude oil cost increase.

The most visible difference will be on the balance of payments front

Global brokerage Bernstein cautions India may under-deliver on growth potential without reforms, flagging risks from AI disruption, weak manufacturing gains and rising welfare spending

Against this backdrop, the latest IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook still marks India out as an outlier of strength. India's FY27 growth forecast has been revised upward to 6.5 per cent

India's fiscal deficit is likely to breach the budgeted target for current fiscal and hit 4.5 per cent of GDP as the government's policy response to the West Asia conflict could strain public finances, research firm BMI said on Wednesday. The government in 2026-27 Budget had projected a 4.3 per cent fiscal deficit, a tad lower than 4.4 per cent as per revised estimates for 2025-26. BMI also expects the government to introduce policies to redirect critical inputs to key industries, restrain business costs and improve financial support for firms. BMI said it also expects the government to consider restrictions on exports of scarce inputs such as helium and sulphur -- used for producing semiconductor chips. It said that since sulphur is also an important ingredient for making fertilisers, the government will strive to minimise disruptions to the agriculture sector, which employs 43 per cent of India's workforce. The government will seek to restrain cost increases for businesses affec

India's economy is projected to grow at 6.4 per cent this year and 6.6 per cent in 2027, according to a report by the United Nations. The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) said in the report released Monday that economies in South and South-West Asia grew by 5.4% in 2025, compared to 5.2% in 2024, driven largely by strong growth in India. India's growth edged up to 7.4% in 2025, "supported by robust consumption, especially from the rural economy along with goods and services tax rate cuts, and export frontloading ahead of the United States' tariffs," the report, titled Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2026, said. It said in India, economic activities moderated in the second half of 2025 as exports to the United States declined by 25 per cent following the introduction of 50 per cent tariffs in August 2025. The services sector remained a key growth driver. The report projected India to register a 6.4 per cent growth rate

Although the government is sticking to its forecasts of 6.8 per cent-7.2 per cent for the fiscal year through March 2027, several economists have already started to downgrade their projections

India's GDP in domestic currency terms records a CAGR of 8.56 per cent between 2021 and 2025, reflecting highest economic growth among major economies

IMF has raised India's FY27 growth forecast to 6.5 per cent, saying lower US tariffs could offset the impact of West Asia tensions even as global growth and trade outlook weaken

Limited fiscal room and weak household finances may keep real GDP growth subdued

India's robust macroeconomic and financial sector fundamentals are likely to cushion the impact of a sustained oil price shock, though economic growth could slow by up to 80 basis points if crude averages USD 130 per barrel in 2026, according to S&P Global Ratings. Under its stress scenario, corporate earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) could decline 15-25 per cent in FY27, with leverage rising by 0.5x-1x, while banking sector asset quality may weaken, pushing bad loans to around 3.5 per cent. "India isn't immune to the shocks reverberating from the Middle East war. The pain of higher energy prices and supply disruptions may persist for months, crimping economic activity across households, corporations, and banks," S&P Global Ratings said in a report. However, strong corporate balance sheets, well-capitalised banks and a resilient external position provide buffers against the impact. S&P Global Ratings assumes Brent crude at USD 130 per ..

From bridal skincare to fitness makeovers, India’s pre-wedding industry is evolving fast. Now, weight-loss injections like Mounjaro are becoming part of that transformation, raising questions about he

Trust is no longer just a matter of perception; it is a hard economic and governance variable

High oil prices pose risks but India's strong buffers, resilient exports and policy space can help navigate global uncertainty, says the World Bank