Indian Economy

IMF has raised India's FY27 growth forecast to 6.5 per cent, saying lower US tariffs could offset the impact of West Asia tensions even as global growth and trade outlook weaken

Limited fiscal room and weak household finances may keep real GDP growth subdued

India's robust macroeconomic and financial sector fundamentals are likely to cushion the impact of a sustained oil price shock, though economic growth could slow by up to 80 basis points if crude averages USD 130 per barrel in 2026, according to S&P Global Ratings. Under its stress scenario, corporate earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) could decline 15-25 per cent in FY27, with leverage rising by 0.5x-1x, while banking sector asset quality may weaken, pushing bad loans to around 3.5 per cent. "India isn't immune to the shocks reverberating from the Middle East war. The pain of higher energy prices and supply disruptions may persist for months, crimping economic activity across households, corporations, and banks," S&P Global Ratings said in a report. However, strong corporate balance sheets, well-capitalised banks and a resilient external position provide buffers against the impact. S&P Global Ratings assumes Brent crude at USD 130 per ..

From bridal skincare to fitness makeovers, India’s pre-wedding industry is evolving fast. Now, weight-loss injections like Mounjaro are becoming part of that transformation, raising questions about he

Trust is no longer just a matter of perception; it is a hard economic and governance variable

High oil prices pose risks but India's strong buffers, resilient exports and policy space can help navigate global uncertainty, says the World Bank

The truly unsettling element in the scenario has been the fall in the exchange rate of the rupee. The fall predates the Iran conflict

India has consistently shown remarkable resilience during global crises, not only surviving them but also transforming through the turbulence to emerge stronger, said Shaktikanta Das, Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister, on Thursday. Addressing the AIMA National Leadership Conclave here, Das said, "Through each crisis, India has not merely survived. It has in fact emerged remarkably and measurably stronger". He noted that the global economy continues to face an "unsettled and charged environment" marked by geopolitical fragmentation, supply chain disruptions and uneven growth, with risks "decisively skewed to the downside". Against this backdrop, the former RBI governor highlighted India's strong economic performance, stating that real GDP growth stood at 7.6 per cent in FY26, with an average growth of 7.8 per cent over the past five years. "India's resilience does not alone explain the full story. India did not just endure the period of turbulence. It transformed through it,

Retail inflation is projected at ​4.9% for the current fiscal year ‌reflecting higher food and ​energy prices ‌and exchange depreciation pressure

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the West Asia conflict has raised risks to growth and inflation via oil, trade, and supply chains, but government steps on supply chains and exports may limit the imp

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar on Saturday said India has come through solidly from global shocks that recently tested its resilience, an apparent reference to the ongoing military conflict in West Asia. Speaking at the convocation ceremony of IIM Raipur, Jaishankar emphasised that India has managed both domestic and external challenges fairly successfully. He observed that the impact of conflicts on even distant societies has been profound, which is a testimony to the extent of globalisation. "No one can dispute that multiple global shocks have recently tested our resilience and that India has come through them solidly," Jaishankar added. The crisis in West Asia, which began in February after the US and Israel attacked Iran, has impacted global fuel supply and triggered a shortage of hydrocarbons. Jaishankar stressed that there is no getting away from building robust national capabilities, which he noted is the most effective way for de-risking and developing leverage. H

Absolute confiscation vests goods with govt but disposal may include auction, sale or destruction; overvaluation attracts penalties under customs act, while GST export lapses trigger tax liability

Fiscal deficit narrows to 80.4% of revised estimates in April-February FY26, aided by higher revenues and steady capex, though global risks may pressure FY27 outlook

The Centre's fiscal deficit stood at Rs 12.52 lakh crore at the end of February, or 80.4 per cent of the annual budget target for 2025-26 compared to 85.8 per cent in the year-ago period, according to government data released on Monday. The central government estimates the fiscal deficit (the gap between expenditure and revenue) during 2025-26 at 4.4 per cent of GDP, or Rs 15.58 lakh crore. According to monthly accounts released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA), the Centre's total receipts stood at Rs 27.91 lakh crore, or 82 per cent of the budget target by February-end 2026. The receipts included Rs 21.45 lakh crore tax revenue (net) and Rs 5.8 lakh crore non-tax revenue. The CGA data showed that the central government's total expenditure during April-February 2025-26 stood at Rs 40.44 lakh crore, or 81.5 per cent of the full financial year budget target.

It said that early high-frequency indicators for March 2026 suggest a moderation in economic momentum, reflecting the initial impact of these global developments

The ratings agency expects growth to moderate from FY26 levels, supported by consumption and investment, while warning of risks from geopolitical tensions and energy prices

Flash data shows private sector growth slowed sharply as West Asia conflict hit demand and raised costs, though expansion remained above 50 mark

The fresh cut in growth estimate by Goldman's analysts follows a change in their assumptions on oil prices and the period of disruption to supplies

India's private sector growth slows to its weakest pace since late 2022 as soft domestic demand and rising costs weigh, even as export orders hit a record high

India is among the most vulnerable to the war's fallout, with heavy dependence on imported crude and LPG, much of it routed via Hormuz, now facing disruptions and shortages