India Steps Up Peace Initiatives

India extended more concessions to Pakistan today by ordering back to base warships deployed in forward positions off the coast from Karachi, and hinted that it would send a high commissioner to Islamabad shortly, amid murmurs of criticism that New Delhi was giving Islamabad too much too soon.

While the more conservative elements in the Bharatiya Janata Party voiced fears that India's conciliation towards Pakistan could create conditions for a Hindu backlash at home, the government showed it was holding out a carrot but also wielding a big stick.

With some conciliatory gestures towards Pakistan timed with US defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld's south Asia visit, in Kashmir the government virtually dared Pakistan to come out in defence of those elements in the All-Party Hurriyat Conference (APHC) who were seen as being 'soft' on Pakistan, like the Jamat-e-Islami chief Syed Ali Shah Geelani.

Geelani and members of his family were arrested under the Prevention of Terrorism Act (POTA) over the weekend, in a move carefully calibrated to match concessions made to Pakistan. The APHC, which has elements that derive moral and material support from across the border, has been a source of continual irritation to the central government but has been handled with kid gloves. These are off now.

Geelani's arrest will have the effect of stopping in their tracks other Hurriyat leaders who might have considered using separatist rhetoric to score points off the central government and rubbish the exercise of elections in Kashmir.

These moves would appear to have unveiled act-II in the India-Pakistan-Kashmir drama, which has as its subtext, India's own moves to assert its authority in Kashmir. Atal Bihari Vajpayee is expected to announce his second visit to Kashmir shortly, which will see a tough-talking Prime Minister offer a new deal to Kashmir.

Donald Rumsfeld is expected to assess for himself, whether India-Pakistan tension is really winding down or it is all just a posture.

Pak President Gen Pervez Musharraf is driving the knife deep by telling the world Pakistan is the wronged nation and that India would have to do more. However, unlike after Kargil, when India's restraint and control came in for much international appreciation and was used to great effect domestically, the current scaling down without anything much to show for it, could rebound on the NDA government.

Vajpayee is preparing to do some skilful management of domestic politics now.