Normal monsoon forecast: Experts see 10% divergence to short duration crops

IMD says chances of El Nino have gone down from 50% to 30%

Farmers are bracing up for short duration crops even as India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday issued a forecast of normal monsoon with reducing possibility of El Niño. 

The national weather forecasting body said that the chances of development of El Niño have gone down from over 50 per cent to 30 per cent in the past few months. 

"A 5-10 per cent diversion in favour of short duration crops is possible as farmers mitigate risk of crop damage. However, farmers with limited alternatives will continue with regular crops," said MK Dhanuka, managing director, Dhanuka Agritech. 

The IMD report on distribution of rain, expected in May, would be critical for crop growing areas of the north-west, central and south India, said a Religare report. "A normal monsoon will benefit fertiliser companies by drawing down inventories of DAP and other complex fertilisers, which are at present estimated at 4-4.5 million tonnes, against the normal level of 2.5-3 million tonnes," said Deepak Chitroda of CRU, a Mumbai-based consultant for the fertilizer market in India and South Asia. 

A clearer picture would emerge after the IMD's June update on distribution of rainfall, which would determine crop sowing, production and demand for agricultural inputs, Chitroda added.