Arithmetic vs charismatic: Can Modi's popularity trump caste equations?

In UP, Bihar and Jharkhand, the NDA is up against skilfully knit opposition alliances

Arithmetic has become a bugbear for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in those swathes of the Hindi heartland where it had optimised its gains in the 2014 Lok Sabha election. Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Jharkhand together accounted for 41.13 per cent of the 282 seats won by the BJP. The three states contributed 134 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats, of which the BJP and its allies picked up 116: 73 from UP (with the Apna Dal-Sonelal Patel), 31 from Bihar (with the Lok Janshakti Party and the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party) and 12 from Jharkhand. 

In 2014, the Opposition was divided three ways in UP, and worked in a piecemeal manner in Bihar and Jharkhand, making it woefully inadequate to combat the Narendra Modi “wave” and the BJP’s smart social engineering that knitted together antagonistic castes. In 2019, pragmatic by hindsight, though not necessarily wiser, the Opposition has put together coalitions in UP, Bihar and Jharkhand while the BJP retained, gained and lost some allies. Will it be a positive-sum or a zero-sum game for the Opposition?

The polemic over mathematics versus chemistry and charisma will be in process in UP, where the Samajwadi Party (SP) has teamed up with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD). The coalition represents a daunting admixture of caste and community and a geographical sweep. If the amalgam transmutes into popular support and votes, the BJP has a tough fight in hand.

UP BJP Spokesperson Chandra Mohan downplayed the coalition’s potential challenge. “Our assessment is there’s little or no coordination at the local level as a result of which vote transfer will be minimal. Second, the workers of these parties haven’t recovered from the defeats suffered in successive elections.... We accommodated the Yadavs and the Jatavs (who make up the SP’s and the BSP’s core votes) in positions of power in UP and the Centre,” he claimed.

Sunil Singh Yadav, who helms the SP’s student wing and is a legislative council member, contested the BJP’s claim. “For the past several months, SP, BSP and RLD leaders are out in the field, explaining to our workers the political and social significance of the alliance... Our relations are good at every level. For the first time in years, caste equations will best nationalism and communalism,” he stressed. Yadav’s argument notwithstanding, the gatbandhan has competition from the Congress, which roped in smaller but influential caste entities such as the Apna Dal (Krishna Patel), the Mahan Dal and the Jan Adhikar Party.

In Bihar, the Opposition hit a roadblock over joust for seats, and it was finally resolved on Friday. On paper, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-Congress alliance, punched up by the Hindustan Awam Morcha (HAM), the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RSLP), Sharad Yadav’s Jan Loktantrik Party and the Vikasheel Insaan Party (VIP) appeared a tad more formidable than the BJP-Janata Dal (United)-Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) compact. The NDA lost the RSLP to the Opposition.

Apart from the RJD’s traditional Muslim-Yadav base, the others bring value to the table: The VIP has a committed following among the Mallahs (fisherfolk), the HAM draws in the scheduled caste Musahar votes in a dozen districts while the RLSP gets the Kurmi votes. 

Sanjay Jaiswal, the BJP’s Bettiah MP, brushed aside the impact of caste equations. “This election is about Modi. It’s about bringing electricity to the homes of farmers who lived in darkness, about implementing the Food Security Act and using central and state funds to take development in our constituencies to another level.”  

A former associate of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar put a reality check on the BJP’s assertion. “As part of the bargain, the BJP and JD(U) are fighting on an equal number of seats. The BJP’s local leaders are unhappy with forfeiting what they believe is their legitimate share,” said the source.

In Jharkhand, Ajoy Kumar, the state Congress president, framed the battle as an “index of unity”. “If the NDA puts up a more united show than the UPA, it’s advantage BJP,” he said. A Ranchi political observer’s take was: “A sense of regionalism is growing. We have to see if the BJP’s nationalism can counter this.”

Bihar (seats - 40)
 

2014 Lok Sabha polls

RJD-Congress-Nationalist Congress Party were allies; BJP was in alliance with LJP 

BJP-led NDA

• BJP won 22 seats and secured 29.86% vote
• LJP won 6 seats and got 6.50% vote
• RLSP  won 3 seats and got 0.12% vote

RJD-led UPA

• RJD won 4 seats and secured 20.46% vote
• Congress won 2 seats and polled 8.56% vote
• NCP won 1 seat  with 1.22% vote
• JD(U) contested on its own, won 2 seats and got 16.04 % vote 

Alliances in 2019

• NDA is BJP+JD(U)+LJP
• UPA is JD+Congress +RLSP +HAM+VIP +CPI+JLP

Uttar Pradesh (seats: 80)

2014 Lok Sabha polls 

BJP+Apna Dal (Sonelal Patel) were allies; Samajwadi Party fought independently and BSP, too, was on its own; Congress was in alliance with RLD

BJP-led NDA

• BJP won 71 seats and secured 42.63% vote
• Apna Dal (Sonelal Patel)  won 2 seats and polled 0.02% vote
• SP won 5 seats and got 22.35% vote
• BSP lost all and got 19.77% vote
• Congress took 2 seats and 7.53% vote
• RLD had no seat and 0.86% vote

Alliances in 2019

• NDA is BJP+Apna Dal (Sonelal Patel) +Suheldev BSP; Gatbandhan is SP+BSP+RLD
• Congress is with Apna Dal (Krishna Patel), Mahan Dal, Jan Adhikar Party

Jharkhand (seats: 14)

2014 Lok Sabha polls
 

• BJP fought solo 
• Congress was with JMM
• BJP won 12 seats and got 40.71% votes
• Congress won 0 and got 13.48% vote
• JMM had 2 seats and 9.42% vote
• Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) has no seat and 12.25% vote
• All Jharkhand Students Union: 0 seats and 3.77 vote %;
• RJD, which failed to win a seat, got 1.66% vote
• No information on EC website on vote for JD(U)

Alliances in 2019
 

• NDA is BJP+ASJU;
• UPA is Congress+JMM +JVM (Prajantrik)+RJD
• JD(U) plans to contest solo

Sources: The Election Commission’s website — https://eci.gov.in