Karnataka Assembly Elections 2018: Will Kumaraswamy's JD(S) be kingmaker?

The Karnataka Assembly Elections 2018 are different from other upcoming assembly elections because here there is a three way fight and not just the two national parties taking on each other.  Janata Dal Secular or JD(S) in the midst makes the Karnataka Assembly Elections more interesting and challenging for the BJP and the Congress. The JD(S) is a regional force which was formed in July 1999 and is led by former Prime Minister of India, H. D. Deve Gowda. His son H. D. Kumaraswamy is the Karnataka State President and has been a former Chief Minister of Karnataka. He is also the nominated chief ministerial candidate of the party. The best performance of JD(S) was in the assembly elections of 2004 where it was successful in winning 59 seats and was able to form a government first in a coalition with Congress and later with the BJP.

In the last 3 assembly elections of 2004, 2008 and 2013 the JD(S) has managed to poll around 20% of the total votes. The origins of the JD(S) are rooted in an anti-congress front but with the emergence of BJP as a major power in Karnataka the political equations changed rapidly. JD(S) is regarded as a rural party with support base of farmers and the poor with not much of an influence in the urban centers. Due to its seesawing nature of taking and giving support to both the BJP and the Congress the party has got a tag for itself of being opportunistic. Also the party is accused of encouraging caste and dynasty politics. Yet with considerable support JD(S) aspires to be the kingmaker if not the king themselves in the upcoming elections. In the forthcoming elections the best case scenario for the JD(S) would be if it can emerge as the single largest party and the worst case scenario would be if the BJP or Congress is able to successfully win a simple majority on their own.  

It’s generally believed that the JD(S) considers Congress as a lesser evil than the BJP due to their secular credentials. Things may also work out better between the Congress and the JD(S) as the current Congress CM Siddhramiah is himself a former JD(S) leader. In the buildup of the 2018 assembly elections H. D. Kumaraswamy has stated that he won’t form a coalition government with the BJP. But it is widely believed that the said statement was made to consolidate the minority vote bank and if the numbers favor the BJP, then the JD(S) true to its nature won’t have too many qualms in going with the BJP too. All the three parties the BJP, Congress and JD(S) are claiming that they would win simple majority on their own but with no party gaining a simple majority and JD(S) polling around 20% votes which it does historically will also be happy place for the JD(S) making them the kingmaker.

In early January some opinion polls stated that if elections were held then, the possibility of hung assembly was the most likely outcome.  In the said scenario the role of JD(S) would have become that of paramount importance. Both the BJP and the Congress have had bitter experiences with the JD(S) in the past but if the political arithmetic dictates they would be left with no choice by to ally with the JD(S). Initially it was believed that both Congress and the JD(S) has a bonhomie going on behind the scenes with JD(S) shying away from attacking the Congress government and H. D. Deve Gowda even complimenting  CM Siddhramiah for his rule. But now with the Karnataka assembly elections just a couple of month away things between the Congress and JD(S) have gone south dramatically. H. D. Kumaraswamy is no longer shying away from launching bitter attacks on Congress and CM Siddhramiah, Congress has also accused JD(S) of being hand in glove with the BJP.

Lately any cozying up between the JD(S) and the Congress was quickly lost with the JD(S) accusing the Congress of being in collusion with the returning officer to defeat their candidate in the recently held Karnataka Rajya Sabha polls. After the said development the last nail in the coffin was probably when couple of days back six rebel MLAs of the JD(S) resigned and joined the Congress. As of now the JD(S) is keeping its card close to its chest. JD(S) has been working silently in their usual strongholds of rural Bengaluru, Mandya and Mysuru. It’s no secret that H. D. Kumaraswamy harbors the desire to become the Chief Minister of Karnataka again with support from the Veerashaivas and Kurubas communities. But will the JD(S) be the kingmaker or the king or will the BJP or Congress successful in taking the wind out of the sails of the JD(S) is something that the people of Karnataka in a couple of months time.