Are Karnataka Assembly Elections 2018 Semi-finals for 2019 Lok Sabha Polls?

In 2014, PM Narendra Modi led NDA stormed in to power with an absolute majority. Since then, BJP has been successful in keeping the momentum going. As of today BJP led governments are in power in 22 states either on their own or along with a coalition partner. After the completion of 3 years in power, all the opinion polls and surveys that were conducted by various private media houses had concluded that PM Modi by-far remained the most popular leader in India. The consensus was that if the Lok Sabha elections were held then, the BJP would again form the government at the center with ease. But lately much has changed or at least the opposition would like to believe so. On 26th May 2018, the Modi government will complete 4 years in power and things are fast becoming challenging for the BJP.

The BJP led NDA government has come under pressure and severe criticism on many fronts recently. Farmer agitations, distress in the agricultural sector and failure to generate enough jobs are the primary concerns on which the government is perceived to be unsuccessful by many.  The opposition would also like to believe that after being 4 years in power a certain fatigue would have crept in and that people would be yearning for a change, especially after non-deliverance on tall promises and ‘acche din’. Before the Gujarat assembly elections, it was believed that the next general election which is due in 2019 was a done deal for the BJP. But with the recent resurgence of Congress and the regional outfits in the Gujarat assembly elections and recent by-polls, BJP definitely has reasons to worry. 

Lately the opposition has also realised that to take on the might of the BJP they will have to keep aside their differences and come together. There are even talks that the Modi government may even call for an early general election. In the said scenario, the next 16 months have become extremely significant for all political parties. Although 16 months is a long time in politics and predicting the behaviour of the Indian electorate is a risky proposition but if anything then the upcoming assembly elections in 2018 will point towards the happenings in the next general election. Before the general elections are held in 2019, assembly elections would be held in the states of Karnataka, Mizoram, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. These elections are touted as the semi-finals before the big finals in 2019.  

The first amongst the remaining state assembly elections will be the Karnataka assembly elections 2018 that will be held in May 2018. Here the Congress and the BJP are in the throbbing rivalry and the BJP is trying to snatch power from the Congress. But unlike in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan where the BJP and the Congress are in direct confrontation against each other; in Karnataka there is also JD(S) in the fight. There is no doubt that victory or defeat in the upcoming assembly elections will have a profound impact of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. These elections will also provide an opportunity for political parties to strategize and do course correction if required. The budget presented by finance minister Arun Jaitley in February had a special focus on the rural economy and agricultural sector; this shows that the BJP is eyeing the Assembly elections in 2018. This move was expected especially after analysing the results of the Gujarat elections and the voting pattern in particular. The BJP was able to retain power due to the solid support in the big cities in Gujarat. But in the rural constituency there was a significant drop in the popularity of the BJP.

Karnataka assembly elections in 2018 are very significant as Karnataka is the gateway for any political party to South India. Karnataka also has a Congress government, which is a thorn in the BJP’s Congress-free India campaign. Be it the soft-Hindutva plank of the Congress or politics of various caste combinations or the development agenda or religious polarization, what the electorate of Karnataka will accept and what they will reject will be interesting to see. The same will decide the agenda and on what format the campaign for the general elections in 2019 will be fought.