US polls 2020: Democrat Biden days away from picking vice president runner

Presidential politics move fast. What we're watching heading into a new week on the 2020 campaign: Days to general election: 92

Days to first state offering early voting (North Carolina): 33

THE NARRATIVE

With early voting fast approaching, both presidential camps are feverishly making final preparations for the post-summer sprint to Election Day as the coronavirus pandemic and related economic devastation show few signs of improving.

Democrat Joe Biden is on the verge of picking a running mate, if he hasn't already, a decision that is likely the most significant of his decades-long political career. And President Donald Trump's team is fighting to settle on a campaign message as the Republican president himself takes dramatic steps to undermine the integrity of the election in case he loses.

Never has an incumbent US president so blatantly attacked the election process itself and done so little to try to fix it. Trump spent much of last week decrying the expected surge in mail voting during the pandemic, going so far as to suggest delaying the election date.

While congressional leaders in both parties slapped down the idea, Trump did not back away from the shocking suggestion or his baseless claims that the 2020 election will be rigged against him. At the same time, the Trump administration has opposed any significant efforts in the latest coronavirus rescue package to protect and strengthen mail voting.

But this week largely belongs to Biden, who is days away from announcing the winner of the veepstakes. The public and private jockeying among the prospective picks has intensified, but expect it to get even hotter before it's over. Beleaguered Republicans are praying for a flawed pick who would help make the 2020 contest a binary choice instead of a referendum on Trump.

And the veepstakes winner is? A smart operative told us over the weekend that only an extremely small circle maybe three or four people truly knows Biden's thinking regarding his running mate, and those people aren't talking.

That means much of what you see and hear in the coming days is likely a reflection of spinning by the supposed finalists and by Washington group think that may or may not be connected to reality.

We know for sure that Biden will pick a woman, and he said he would make his decision this week, although his campaign has raised the possibility that a formal announcement wouldn't come until next week. The finalists are thought to include California Sen. Kamala Harris, former national security adviser Susan Rice, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and California Rep. Karen Bass, and it's always possible the choice will be someone else.

Many establishment voices are urging Biden to go with Harris, a potential fundraising star who has already been vetted on the presidential stage and been elected statewide multiple times. Some Obama allies are pushing Rice, who has never run for public office but has an unrivaled command of global affairs and experience working at Biden's side. Many progressives are hoping for a more exciting pick such as Warren or Bass who could help energise the party's left flank.

This marks the last major moment of the 2020 campaign truly under Biden's control.

Will Trump do anything to strengthen vote by mail? Trump last week floated the idea of delaying the November election until the pandemic improves to a level where it's safer for most people to vote in person. To be clear, the election date will not be delayed. Republicans and Democrats in Congress, who would have to change federal law to move the election, have overwhelmingly rejected the idea.

The question then becomes whether the Trump administration will do anything to address his concerns about mail voting. Experts say that the threat of major fraud is virtually nonexistent, but the postal service is legitimately overwhelmed and state elections officials struggled to count the explosion of mail ballots throughout the primary season, which delayed final results by weeks in some cases.

This is a very foreseeable crisis. Yet so far, Trump seems far more willing to undermine voter confidence in the election than address serious concerns. Republicans have an opportunity to strengthen mail voting in the new coronavirus rescue package, but absent Trump's support, it's hard to imagine Trump's party doing much to address the issue.

What's happening to the economy?

Last month's optimism about the economy seems to be fading. The government released new numbers last week documenting a record drop for the nation's gross domestic product last quarter in addition to rising unemployment applications. At the same time, Republican governors, including staunch Trump allies like Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves, are openly contemplating rolling back reopening plans, if they haven't already, should coronavirus infections continue to strain their states' health care systems.

This is bad news for Trump politically and bad news for millions of Americans whose livelihoods are at stake. To make matters worse, Congress failed to pass an economic relief package last week as enhanced unemployment benefits expired for nearly 30 million people. It's easy to imagine the loss of such income having a further chilling effect on an already shaky US economy.

The longer this economic pain lasts, the harder it will be for Trump to convince voters that he's better positioned than Biden to rebuild the economy. The coronavirus death toll, meanwhile, continues to surge.