Nifty outlook and key trading ideas by Devang Shah

NIFTY CLOSE- 10226.85  (09.03.2018)

Market closed 2nd consecutive week in negative territory. It has broken crucial neckline support of around 10300-10276 levels this week  & we have seen further sell off towards lower levels targets as expected last week . It made a low of 10,141.55 levels  so far in this correction on nifty this week. One can expect market to trend towards lower levels targets as mentioned below in short term before bottoming out.Trader should use any kind of pull back rally to sell or exit till short term reverses.

All the other indices such as midcap & small cap also closed weekly in negative territory. It looks like wave-(Y) correction is going on from wave count perspectives as per chart attached. Any kind of pull back rally towards neckline is selling opportunity till short term reverses. On the other hand, 10,070- 9800 levels is crucial cluster of support zone near lower end of channel to watch out for any kind of short term bottom formation .     

Short-term outlook for the market remains negative till Nifty trades below 10632 levels and expecting target of 10000-9800 levels in short term. Medium term outlook for the market remains positive till Nifty trades above 8,968 levels and expecting targets in the range of 12000-12200 levels in medium term.

It looks like TIME wise wave-IV correction & will last it at least till March end before final wave-V UP begins as per my expectation.Any kind of such short term correction or consolidation is buying opportunity for medium to long term Investment perspectives till medium term reverses.

BANK NIFTY also closed weekly in negative territory. Its relatively more under performing then other indices. It has completed wave-X pull back rally near recent high of 25,780 levels in short term. One can expect lower levels target1-23900, target2-23600 & in extreme case target3-23300 levels in this wave-IV correction till it reverses in short term. 25,780 is now short term reversal levels on bank nifty. 

10000 & 10500 levels is strong support & resistance levels respectively based on option open interest data so far for this month series. Market will remain very volatile in this corrective phase. 

Momentum indicators Daily KST & daily MACD both are in SELL supporting short term trend. One should be stock specific & follow the trend with trail stop loss levels till it reverses. Close above short term reversal levels will finally confirm further rally towards medium term higher levels targets.

Stock Picks: 

IOC- BUY
CLOSE – Rs 385.85
TARGET – Rs 400-410

IOC closed weekly  in positive territory. Its out performing in short term. Its trading in thin range.Its daily momentum indicators are in BUY. Risk reward is favourable to BUY at current levels. One can BUY with a stop loss of Rs 363  for the target of Rs 400/410 levels in short-term. 

CASTROL- BUY
CLOSE – Rs 200
TARGET – Rs 217-225

CASTROL closed the weekly in positive territory. Its outperforming in short term.It managed to hold crucial support of 20 DMA .Its daily momentum indicators are in BUY. Risk Reward is favourable to BUY at current levels.One can buy with a stop loss of Rs 188  for the target of Rs 217/225  levels in short-term. 

INDUSIND BANK- BUY
CLOSE – Rs 1700
TARGET – Rs 1750-1790

INDUSIND BANK closed the weekly in positive territory. Its outperforming in short term. Its also trading above 20 DMA. Its daily momentum indicators are in BUY. Risk Reward is favourable to BUY at current levels.One can buy with a stop loss of Rs 1663 for the target of Rs 1750/1790  levels in short-term. 

TATA STEEL- SELL
CLOSE – Rs 611.50
TARGET – Rs 593-575

TATA STEEL closed the weekly in negative territory. It has broken bearish H&S pattern on down side.Its daily momentum indicators are in SELL. It also closed below 200 DMA at the end of weekly trading session. One can SELL with a stop loss of Rs 646  for the target of Rs 593/575  levels in short-term. 

AXIS BANK- SELL
CLOSE – Rs 508
TARGET – Rs 480-475

AXIS BANK closed the weekly in negative territory.Its daily momentum indicators are in SELL. It also closed below 200 DMA at the end of weekly trading session. One can SELL with a stop loss of Rs 546  for the target of Rs 480/465  levels in short-term. 

Devang Shah: The author of www.trendtechno.com (Trade with Trend) and an independent market analyst

Disclaimer: The analyst may / may not have a position in the scrips mentioned above; the views given above are the personal views of the analyst.Consultant & Advisors in the world of Financial Market.Disclaimer: 

The analyst may have a position in the scrip mentioned above; the views given above are the personal views of the analyst.