Nifty outlook and stock recos for today's trade by Devang Shah

NIFTY CLOSE- 10452.30 (16.02.2018)

Market consolidated in narrow range for the week with high volatility. It closed 3rd consecutive week in negative territory. All the other indices also closed weekly in negative territory. It looks like possibility of  triangular kind of consolidation on all indices except Bank Nifty on daily chart. One can expect market to trend towards lower levels targets till 10275/10300 levels on Nifty and 33480/33500 levels on Sensex as per chart attached, only if lower end supports breaks as mentioned below. Its not preferred wave count as of now for me. Any kind of pull back rally in use for sell or exit from trading perspectives till short term reverses. 

As an alternate preferred wave counts, If it managed to hold lower end support levels 33,849 levels on sensex & 10398 levels on nifty than, we can expect first strong pull back rally till 35130 levels on sensex & 10780 levels on nifty as per chart attached in short term before next round of sell off starts towards revised short term targets levels in short term. It may also remain in range of 10400-10800 levels in short term before trending momentum established in this correction. My preferred view is strong case of pull back first in short term before next round of sell off stats as per these wave counts.  

Short-term outlook for the market remains negative till Nifty trades below 11172 levels and expecting target of 10000-9950 levels in short term. Medium term outlook for the market remains positive till Nifty trades above 8,968 levels and expecting targets in the range of 12000-12200 levels in medium term.

Bank Nifty also closed weekly in negative territory. It still looks like wave-B case of possibility of pull back rally as per chart attached.It has strong support around 25000 levels till it holds one can’t ruled out pull back rally to extend till 26000-26300 levels in short tern before next round of sell off starts. Close below these support of 25000 levels will ruled out possibility of pull back rally & will see sharp sell off till 24000-23600 levels in short term. One should closely watch out bank nifty behavior to get further clue for short term trend.

10500-11000 levels is strong support & resistance levels respectively based on option open interest data so far for expiry perspectives next week. Market will remain very volatile in this corrective phase. Any kind of short term correction or consolidation is buying opportunity for medium to long term Investment perspectives till medium term reverses.

Momentum indicators Daily KST & daily MACD both are in SELL supporting short term trend. One should be stock specific & follow the trend with trail stop loss levels till it reverses. Close above short term reversal levels will finally confirm further rally towards medium term higher levels targets.

Stock Picks: 

BATA- BUY

CLOSE – Rs 700

TARGET – Rs 750/775

BATA closed weekly in negative territory. It has wave-V pending on monthly chart. It’s still trading above 40 DMA. Its managed to find support near 200 DMA. One can BUY with stop loss of 756 for the target of 750/775 levels in short term.

DHFL- BUY

CLOSE – Rs- 541.35

TARGET – Rs 575-595

DHFL closed weekly in positive territory. It looks like possibility of pull back rally to extend further in short term. Its daily momentum indicators are in BUY. One can BUY with a stop loss of Rs 495 for the target of Rs 575/595 in short-term.

MARUTI- SELL

CLOSE – Rs- 8858.90

TARGET – Rs 8500/8200

Maruti closed the weekly in negative territory. Its looks like end of short term pull back rally.It closed below 20DMA. Its daily momentum indicators are in SELL. One can sell with a stop loss of Rs 9200 for the target of Rs 8500/8200 in short-term. 

L&T- SELL

CLOSE – Rs- 1326

TARGET – Rs 1260/1210

L&T closed the weekly in negative territory. Its consolidated in narrow range for short term.Its still trading below 20 DMA. Its daily momentum indicators are in SELL. One can sell  with a stop loss of Rs 1380 for the target of Rs 1260/1210 in short-term. 

Devang Shah: The author of www.trendtechno.com (Trade with Trend) and an independent market analyst

Disclaimer: The analyst may / may not have a position in the scrips mentioned above; the views given above are the personal views of the analyst.Consultant & Advisors in the world of Financial Market.Disclaimer: 

The analyst may have a position in the scrip mentioned above; the views given above are the personal views of the analyst.