Short-term support expected at 5,000, resistance above 5,200

The Nifty closed above 5,000 due to short-covering on healthy GDP numbers for the September quarter and easing of concerns about the debt default in Dubai. The Nifty December futures saw short-covering above 5,030 and there was long build-up below 5,010. In the end, futures shed 813,250 shares in open interest (OI) and closed at four points premium to the spot, indicating unwinding of short positions.

The Nifty was expected to continue its pull-back as most index heavyweights saw short-covering and build-up of fresh long positions. Tata Steel was up 6 per cent as its December and January futures together added around one million shares in open interest through buy-side trades. Steel Authority of India and NTPC added over one million shares in open interest each, while Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank and Infosys Technologies rose over 1-2.5 per cent and added over 300,000 shares in open interest each, indicating long build-up. Short-covering was seen in Bharti Airtel and Suzlon Energy, which rose 5.5 per cent each and together shed 3.50 million shares in open interest, indicating short-covering.

Trading data show unwinding of short positions in 4,700-5,100 calls and short build-up at the 5,000 put. Unwinding in call options was mostly through change of hands and some buy-trades while build-up of open interest in the 5,000 put was through sell-side trades. This means the index is likely to trade above 5,000 and even move above 5,100 in the near future. Short-term support is expected at 5,000 levels.

Technically, the daily RSI at 54 is close to the oversold line, while moving averages are almost at the price action. Gautam Shah, a technical analyst at JM Financial, expects the Nifty is set to retrace recent losses and get back around 5,100. The open interest build-up in 4,900-5,000 puts and the 5,200 call suggest the index has strong support above 4,900 and resistance above 5,200.