Support in new series is expected at 5,000-5,100

The market is likely to be volatile on the last day of the expiry of the December series as rollovers in index and stocks futures on the penultimate day were substantially lower than the same time last month.

The rollovers in Nifty January futures were at 17.03 million shares (57 per cent of the total open interest) compared to 22.04 million shares (63 per cent) same time last month. The rollovers in stocks futures were at 66.6 per cent compared with 64.3 per cent same time last month. The Nifty can swing either side with a close above 5,200 on long rollovers and strikingly below 5,200 on short rollovers.

There were high rollovers in power and auto stocks. Reliance Power saw 83 per cent rollovers while 74 per cent positions in Tata Power were rolled over. Among automobile companies, Maruti Suzuki and Mahindra & Mahindra saw around 80 per cent rollovers while 77 per cent positions in Hero Honda were rolled over.

Among sectors, high rollovers was seen in cement, telecom, finance and metals, while steel, pharma and IT stocks saw low rollovers. In real estate, DLF saw a rollover of 70 per cent while 59 per cent positions in Unitech were rolled over.

Otions traders expected the Nifty to close below 5,200 as 5,200 calls of the December series held the highest open interest among call options. The 5,200 put of the December series shed 2.09 million shares in open interest, mostly on account of profit-booking from put buyers. This means put buyers expect the Nifty to settle around 5,200 on the last day of the expiry. Options traders expect the Nifty to cross the 5,300 level in January as they build fresh positions at 5,200-5,400 calls of the January series. The support for the Nifty in the new series is expected at 5,000-5,100 considering the open interest build-up in these puts.