Wkly Tech Analysis: Bears to bully Nifty below 4,830

The markets ended lower for the fifth straight week, amid global and local turbulence. The Sensex had rallied to a high of 16,549 early this week, but erased gains and plunged to a low of 15,765 on Friday. It finally ended at 15,849, with a loss of 292 points (1.8 per cent). The BSE benchmark, thus, has shed 2,873 points (15.4 per cent) over the past five weeks.

Among the index stocks, Coal India slumped nine per cent to Rs 360. Tata Steel, Jaiprakash Associates, SBI, Maruti, DLF, HDFC Bank and Jindal Steel shed five to eight per cent each. Bajaj Auto, however, rallied five per cent. Bharti Airtel, BHEL and TCS were the other major gainers.

As explained in the previous week, the index has sent a sell signal on the monthly, quarterly and yearly charts. The next major support seems to exist around 15,050-odd levels. The medium-term weekly charts indicate the index may see a steeper fall to 12,000-odd levels. This to fill the gap created in May 2009.

This week, the Sensex is likely to seek support around 15,550-15,350. On the upside, it is likely to face resistance around 16,150-16,335.

The NSE Nifty moved in a range of 245 points. From a high of 4,966, it tumbled to a low of 4,720, finally ending at 4,748, with a loss of 98 points.

The Nifty seems to be in decline on the daily charts. It needs to break above 4,830 to buck this trend. Till then, the bears will have an upper hand.

This week, the Nifty is likely to face resistance around 4,840-4,900. On the downside, it is likely to seek support around 4,650-4,600.