Himalayan failure: Why a communist merger failed to work in Nepal

The merger of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist) and the Maoist Centre two years ago has failed and Nepal is in danger precisely what it had vowed never to be - a guided democracy

Mergers and acquisitions should never be taken lightly, say management manuals. Not only are you asking two companies to integrate under one corporate mission, but you are bringing together large groups of people with their own personalities, ambitions, behavioural traits, and ways of working. They warn that without a clear strategy, effective project management, and open communication between stakeholder groups, the merger or acquisition will struggle to deliver the desired results. The process must be transparent and realistic, and involve all areas of management if success is to be achieved. The failure rate is 90 per cent. The merger of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist) and the Maoist Centre two years ago just joined the 90 per cent.

Only rarely do prime ministers with a two-thirds majority in the House recomm­end its dissolution and fresh elections. Supporters of Nepal Prime Minister K P Sha­rma Oli say he was driven to it. Followers of the (merged) Nepal Communist Party (NCP) Executive Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal “Prachanda” say Mr Oli was blinded by power and believed he alone took the party to victory, no one else had any role in it. The truth probably lies somewhere in between.

When the parties merged in 2018, the agreement was that Mr Oli and Prachanda would share the prime minister’s position for two and half years each. When the time came (earlier this year) for Mr Oli to pass on the baton, he decided he’d rather stay on and not name someone else as prime minister. He needed an issue. India provided him the opportunity when Defence Minister Rajnath Singh inaugurated the road at Lipulekh, leading to a territorial dispute. It was beautiful — Nepali nationalism nudging aside the aim of a classless society and, with it, everyone coming in the way. India watched as Mr Oli made gaffe after gaffe: Ranging from claiming the birthplace of Ram was in Nepal (in Ayodhya in Nepal’s Birgunj) to getting Parliament to endorse a new map of Nepal with “disputed” areas marked as Nepal territory. For New Delhi, taking in Mr Oli began to become harder and harder.

But for Mr Oli, there was a problem. The reins of the party were still in the hands of Prachanda. Besides, other colleagues — former prime ministers Madhav Nepal and Jhalanath Khanal — were also making their moves. President Bidya Devi Bhandari stepped in to make peace, by creating institutions to accommodate the two groups. That last attempt was in November 2019. It didn’t work. Mr Oli tried to neutralise them and reach out to The People. The route lay via Beijing.

In Mr Oli, the Communist Party of China (CCP) found a useful ally and client. During his regime, the CCP and NCP have institutionalised their ties. Political and military delegations are expanding exchange programmes and last year Chinese tourists coming by air outnumbered Indians arriving on flights. President Xi Jinping recently spoke to Ms Bhandari and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has held two virtual meetings with Nepal on managing the pandemic. Chinese aid and investment in Nepal now exceed India’s.

But Nepal has a morbid national fear — of being bought and of being forced to surrender sovereignty. This is a country that no imperial power has been able to colonise. With a large section of the party at his command (and possibly, with some constructive assistance from New Delhi), Prachanda got 91 of the 170 party lawmakers to threaten to move a no-trust motion in Parliament, replacing Mr Oli by himself and also as the new leader of the parliamentary party. Before this could be done, Mr Oli dissolved Parliament and announced fresh elections, though there is no provision for this in Nepal’s Constitution. The reason: The collective national memory of the King dissolving Parliaments propelled Constitution makers to ensure no constitutional coup overthrowing a legitimately elected government could ever take place in Nepal again. But Mr Oli has done just that.

It is hard to predict what will happen now. There are dozens of petitions in Nepal’s Supreme Court, challenging what Mr Oli has done. The national mood is unsettled. During his years as prime minister, Mr Oli may have antagonised many. But he has also obliged many. Which is the real NCP is an issue that is yet to be decided. A split in the NCP is all but formalised. And with both India and China having deep interests, Nepal is in danger of becoming precisely what it had vowed never to be: A guided democracy following a failed merger.