Aditi Phadnis: It is do or die for Chandrababu Naidu

The TDP chief has time in his hands, but he must choose a side after the Lok Sabha elections

Contrary to what the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) spin doctors would have us believe, Telugu Desam Party (TDP) chief N Chandrababu Naidu has not said clearly that he is ready to walk alongside the BJP just yet. In July this year (soon after Narendra Modi had commented in reply to a question on the 2002 Gujarat riot killings that even if a puppy comes under a car "one feels bad"), Naidu had called a press conference at his Hyderabad residence and said: "Muslims were killed in huge numbers during 2002 Gujarat riots; comparing that to a puppy getting crushed under a car is shameful. It is disgraceful that a man holding the post of CM has such feelings." He added that Modi had shown no remorse for the killings of Muslims right under the nose of his government. "He has overlooked the fact that his comments would hurt the sentiments of families that lost their loved ones in the riots, and will boost communal rogue elements," Naidu said.

Naidu's statement came as the campaign for the panchayat elections in Andhra Pradesh (AP) was on. Panchayat elections are held on a non-party basis in AP, and candidates do not contest on party tickets but are informally backed by various political groups. But the results showed that despite repeated Assembly and Lok Sabha election setbacks, the TDP was still in the game: The Congress won 5,815 and the TDP was marginally higher at 5,934. YSR Congress won 3,706 and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) won 1,676.

This result is fairly recent: July, 2013. It showed that in rural AP, people were looking for an alternative to the Congress. In some areas it was the YSR Congress, in some others it was the TRS. But the BJP was nowhere in contention (it got about a dozen seats).

This is why in Andhra Pradesh, the BJP needs the TDP more than the TDP needs it. Chandrababu Naidu has said repeatedly that his priority is winning the Andhra Pradesh Assembly elections. With the state in his pocket, he is something. Without it, he's nothing. It was because the TDP had such an overwhelming presence in AP that Naidu was able to influence politics in Delhi and project himself as a kingmaker in the 1990s. He knows that if he grasps the BJP's hand ahead of the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, he gives that party credibility; but for him, the alliance brings little to the table.

There are compulsions: the TDP's base of the wealthy Kammas in the coastal districts of AP. The politically influential Kammas were the first off the block to take advantage of the information technology revolution in AP. They are in the west in large numbers, where Narendra Modi is a seductive figure: amid a desolate leadership landscape in India dominated by corruption and croneyism he stands out as a beacon of decisive governance. They are sanguine about his communalism record. "He won't do it again," one of them said, when asked what they thought of the 2002 riots.

There are other challenges. Jaganmohan Reddy is out of jail. Although subject to the condition that he won't be allowed to travel outside Hyderabad, Reddy's release is a big shot in the arm for the YSR Congress. He will be able to oversee the affairs of his party, which, no doubt, will project him as bound in handcuffs and ropes. Emotions matter a lot in elections. He will attack the Congress, but his main target will be the TDP. As Reddy has come out unequivocally against the division of AP, he will get little political traction in the Telangana areas, but will be a powerful force in the Rayalaseema and coastal regions of AP. This is bound to be a headache for Naidu who has still not said clearly whether he is for a united AP or a divided one. Some members of Parliament from his party have been ejected from the House for constant disruption and shouting slogans against the division of AP. Fearing a vertical split in his party, Naidu has avoided taking a stand. He knows the ground is slipping rapidly from under his feet.

Muslims in AP are located largely in the Telangana region for historical reasons. There are pockets of Muslims in the coastal regions and Rayalaseema has both Muslims and Christians. But the minorities have reconciled to the fact that the state will be divided. All they are concerned about it is how the influence of the BJP will be contained in the two smaller states: In Telangana, their numbers will go up to 12.5 per cent of the population while in the Seemandhra region, they will be just 7 per cent. In United AP they were around 10 per cent and were always confident they would be able to swing an electoral result. Conscious of this, the Rajashekhar Reddy government gave them a 4-per cent reservation in professional colleges and government jobs in 2007; now they will side with that political group that they see as able to defeat the BJP.

Faced with these problems, Chandrababu Naidu would be stalling for time. He can't retract what he's said about Modi in the past. But he can wait to see what the outcome of the Lok Sabha election will be before deciding which way he should go. After being out of power for so long, this Assembly election is do or die for him as well as his party. Obviously, he won't do anything in a hurry.