Contesting in Varanasi a win-win for Priyanka Gandhi and Congress?

If Priyanka takes on the PM in Varanasi, voters across the nation will realise that finally the Congress has skin in the game. Irrespective of the electoral outcome here the party's stock will rise

Speculation about Priyanka Gandhi contesting against Prime Minister Narendra Modi from Varanasi will end in a few days as the deadline for nomination is reached. The decision will indicate how the Congress party wants to chart its future – with boldness and courage or satisfied as an also-ran for now.

The mere prospect of such a contest has led to speculations that the prime minister may choose a second seat, possibly a pocket borough of the BJP in Madhya Pradesh like Vidisha or in a surprise move even from West Bengal. Should he do so Prime Minister Modi would have already lost the psychological battle for Varanasi. Much as BJP supporters may draw parallels with Rahul Gandhi contesting from two Lok Sabha constituencies, few will buy the argument. The voters will be judging the prime minister on his governance record not Rahul Gandhi.

There are other political gains that the Congress can hope for with Priyanka Gandhi’s candidacy. From the moment she files her nomination, the general election will become charged and the attention of the entire nation would be focused on Varanasi. Given his record of name-calling, she can leave her canvassing to Prime Minister Modi. Defamatory aspersions will convert her into a larger-than-life figure. If the Congress president, Rahul Gandhi is seen as sober national leader today, it is to some extent thanks to the constant pummelling and abuse by Prime Minister Modi who considered him an easy target. The bogey of dynasty he raised around Rahul Gandhi in fact helped him become a contender.

The prime minister may once again use his 'naamdar vs. kaamdar' rhetoric against Priyanka but it could fetch diminishing returns. Particularly because his 'kaam' or record of performance is so poor that he himself does not refer to it much, preferring to piggyback on the valour of the armed forces. Increasingly he is also seeking votes in the detritus of communal events, most recently by fielding a saffron-clad terror accused in the Malegaon blast case for parliament from Bhopal.

Priyanka Gandhi’s candidature would send a message across India that the Congress party is courageous. She will be seen as someone bold enough to take on the biggest bully Indian politics has seen in recent times. Like all bullies, while Prime Minister Modi will abuse the Nehru-Gandhi family in public, deep within he will fret about the probability, however miniscule, of being defeated by a rookie.

Priyanka Gandhi’s public image being so much the opposite of Prime Minister Modi can only help her stand out as an alternative. While he demeans and threatens his opponents in his election speeches, and that has its admirers, she seems to know the value of polite public behaviour. She has charm, social grace and an easy manner which comes with a history of public dealing as she has assisted her mother and brother in their parliamentary constituencies. Nor can one grudge her the fact that she reminds ordinary folk of her grandmother Indira Gandhi.

Large sections of the media, currently under the Modi-spell, will have no option but to focus on her campaign, spreading it far and wide both nationally and internationally. Varanasi would be a contest watched from every home in India and in international capitals. What cannot be achieved by a hundred public rallies of Priyanka Gandhi will materialise instantly by her standing as a challenger in a do-or-die battle.

In Uttar Pradesh itself, the election will be gingered up in the rest of the state. Voters are upset with the casteism of the Thakur-centric Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath aka Ajay Singh Bisht. It can be expected that Brahmins and Muslims, will gravitate towards the Congress en masse. Women voters who are reportedly charmed by Prime Minister Modi’s personality, could swing towards Priyanka Gandhi once she is in the game. Her impact would be felt most in rural areas and semi-urban youngsters who would see in her an empathetic youth icon, something that a 68-year old Prime Minister cannot hope for. For the youth he has been cast as the preachy “Uncle ji” who despite a questionable academic record doles out advice to youngsters on how to pass exams and become small time entrepreneurs.

Most importantly, if she takes on the prime minister, voters across the nation will realise that finally the Congress has skin in the game. This would give a special fillip to the Congress in the North Indian states where the party is locked in a direct contest with the BJP. There would be no need to wait for the party’s revival in the Uttar Pradesh legislative election in 2022 as some Congressmen are suggesting, or for the 2024 general election. Irrespective of the electoral outcome in Varanasi the party’s stock will rise.

Within the Congress some rationalise that Priyanka Gandhi is already taking on the prime minister in her rallies and public speeches and there is no need to tie her down to Varanasi. But it is one thing to attack your political adversaries when there is no personal cost to pay and quite another when one faces one’s political tormentor and adversary directly. Looking the adversary in the eye without being cowed down is the key to political success against authoritarian politicians. It gives courage to others to do the same.

Insolent and arrogant politicians do not have the same class as challengers. People respect challengers and reward them generously for their bravery. Normally taking on a political giant in an election is left to upstarts who want to make a name for themselves. They gain brand-equity by being challengers. Those who have a political legacy to defend tend to shy away from such contests.

Priyanka Gandhi, does not need brand-equity. She already has huge political capital accrued by her party. Her challenge is to protect that legacy. It is her compulsion to be a dragon-slayer if she does not want that political inheritance to be buried six feet under.

To the question -- what if she loses? – the answer is that fortune favours the brave.

Twitter: @Bharatitis