Energy transition in numbers

It is a mixed bag for clean tech in 2023. The number of charging stations and solar installations are set to rise, but higher battery prices could delay EV adoption

Never have so many eyes tracked the severity of the winter so closely. Its impact on global energy reverberates across all sectors and touches everyone. The warmer-than-expected start to winter across much of the world is reassuring for now, but it will be quite a task — if at all possible — to unknit this global market. Many countries are nevertheless aspiring for energy independence. That strengthens the case for renewables, though higher costs in some segments, such as battery storage, tend to dampen demand.

Some of the key numbers and dates to look out for include the following:

2026: The 7 per cent rise in the price of lithium-ion batteries — the first since BloombergNEF started tracking the market in 2010 — is set to delay the point at which battery pack prices reach $100 a kilowatt-hour. That is the level at which electric vehicles (EVs) start to reach price parity with conventional internal combustion engine vehicles. Some consider it to be the tipping point for mass EV adoption. This price level will now likely be reached in 2026 instead of 2024 as projected earlier. Interest is growing, meanwhile, in a cheaper alternative, namely sodium-ion batteries.

14 million: Global EV sales jumped from 3.2 million in 2020 to more than 10 million in 2022. As many as 14 million plug-in vehicles are expected to be sold this year, with around 75 per cent being fully electric. The rest would be hybrid vehicles. Most of these will be passenger cars but the commercial vehicle segment is also picking up speed. India’s vehicle electrification is being led by two- and three-wheelers.

1.4 million: Tesla produced almost 1.4 million electric vehicles last year, and handed over 1.3 million EVs to customers. Other top EV sellers include BYD, Volkswagen and Geely. The $5,000 Hongguang Mini battery EV catapulted SAIC-GM-Wuling to the top bracket of the EV pack. Minicars could be the next big thing in urban environments, offering the optimal combination of price and performance.

2.5 million: This is the number of EV chargers that Shell aims to have in operation by 2030. Many oil majors are expanding into EV charging, competing with retailers, supermarkets and EV makers themselves. BP is most active in fast-charging technologies. BNEF estimates that there are more than 12 million active EV plug points globally, with the number of home chargers exceeding public charging points. Cumulative investment in charging infrastructure is likely to surpass $100 billion this year.

35: The number of private sector companies presently pursuing nuclear fusion. They have embraced different technological approaches and financing routes. Actual delivery of electricity from a fusion machine likely remains a decade away.

$3.5 billion: This is the investment in low-carbon aviation technology start-ups over 2022 (up to November). Around 1,100 zero-emission planes have been ordered to date. As many as 34 passenger airlines are aiming to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. Expect to hear more about aviation decarbonisation policies, sustainable aviation fuels and hydrogen supply chains.

300+ gigawatts: BNEF expects 316 gigawatts of solar to be installed this year compared with about 270 gigawatts last year and 182 gigawatts in 2021. China aims to add 118 gigawatts of new solar from end-November 2022 to reach 490 gigawatts by the end of the year.

$220 billion: The forecast value of the global market for advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) by 2030. Adoption of Level 2 ADAS is already well underway, with around 21 per cent of passenger cars sold globally in 2021 having that capability. The first Level 3 systems are just becoming available in select geographies.

2,000: Estimated number of companies currently using, or planning to use, an internal carbon price. This includes almost half of the world’s 500 largest corporations. Putting a monetary value on carbon emissions could theoretically incentivise their reduction. Prices used vary from $1 to $760 a tonne of carbon emitted. An internal or shadow price is a common option. However, internal fees and internal trading have the greatest impact, since they involve the transfer of actual funds that are reinvested in carbon reduction efforts.

$9,738: The estimated cost of producing one tonne nickel through the so-called agromining — the process of extracting metals from plants that have absorbed them from the soil. It could spur a new supply of more sustainable nickel and cobalt, but it is a risky prospect given the very early stage of the industry.

$500 million: This is the capex estimate for one gigawatt a year of integrated solar manufacturing capacity in the US or Europe, while the figure for China is $145 million. The process begins with polysilicon, which is used to make ingots, wafers, cells and, finally, modules. China dominates the global supply chain, with at least an 80 per cent share of total manufacturing capacity for each stage of the module making process.

The writer is New York-based editor – global policy for BloombergNEF. vgombar@bloomberg.net