Is the window for military action against Pakistan shrinking?

An invitation from the OIC to India to be the "guest of honour" at the meeting of its foreign ministers in Abu Dhabi on March 1-2 means that no military action can take place before that date

Will the slow unravelling of the government’s national security narrative drive it towards desperate actions in the face of the impending general election?

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Modi government are given to wrapping their shortcomings in the tricolour at every available opportunity. It is used to silence critics in the Opposition and for branding detractors in civil society as “anti-nationals”. However, nobody grudged the wave of nationalist sentiment that swept the country after 42 security personnel lost their lives in the Pulwama terrorist attack.

The Opposition rallied behind the government to make a united stand against terrorism directed against India from Pakistan. Though the Opposition avoided being branded anti-national it never got to ask uncomfortable questions of the Modi government about its policy on Kashmir which was crucial to the present denouement. The government retained control over the the national security narrative.

Then suddenly came a series of photographs of the prime minister hugging Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman and guffawing with him days after the tragedy. It did the PM no credit and the Opposition accused him of insulting the security men martyred at Pulwama. This faux pas was followed by embarrassing questions raised in the media about the propriety of Prime Minister Modi participating in a film shoot in Corbett National Park well past three hours of the Pulwama terrorist strike.

Allegations were that the Prime Minister continued to shoot for a Discovery Channel documentary for a segment where he recalls his spiritual sojourn in the Himalayas in his youth. The documentary is scheduled to be released before the general elections are announced.  Insinuations were inevitable that Prime Minister Modi was more focussed on his electoral fortunes than on issues of national security.

Allegations about prioritising a publicity film-shoot over national security have not been satisfactorily answered by the government. Instead there have been attempts to shift the blame. A TV channel claimed that the National Security Advisor had failed to inform the Prime Minister for two hours after the terroist strike. This has since been removed from its site as it would suggest that lines of communication with the Prime Minister of a nuclear armed state are dangerously inadequate. Such allegations undermine the credibility of the rhetoric of revenge subsequently whipped up by him.

Meanwhile, the Congress party conducted a coup of its own by appointing Lt. Gen. (Retd.) D S Hooda as the head of its task force on national security. Lt. Gen. Hooda was the architect of the Modi government’s celebrated surgical strikes against Pakistan after the terrorist attack in Uri in September 2016. The team led by Lt. Gen. Hooda can be effective in holding the Modi government to account on security issues in the days to come. His credibility and independence are only enhanced by not joining the Congress.

Hooda was opposed the politicisation of the surgical strikes and had criticised the government for not taking adequate follow-up action after the surgical strikes. He had pointed out that because the government had failed to build sufficient pressure on Pakistan, there was another attack on an army camp at Nagrota barely two months after the surgical strikes.

A very significant outcome of Lt. Gen. Hooda heading the Congress Task Force on security is that the government’s national security narrative will no longer be the sole paradigm to which citizens will have to conform in the name of patriotism. Hooda has always held that the Kashmir issue is political and therefore requires a political solution. Even in service, he was a votary of political outreach to the Kashmiris, strengthening civil society in the state and expanding the space for democratic politics. His record as a successful Northern Army Commander, will make it difficult to dismiss any analysis or assessment of the national security scenario he advances.

A collateral benefit of Lt. Gen. Hooda’s appointment could be the shift of support of ex-servicemen to the Congress party. Of late, the constituency has been hijacked by saffron generals patronised by the Vivekananda Foundation and certain TV channels.

Under these circumstances, the Modi government will try to re-appropriate the security narrative once more. It can either turn it inwards against Kashmiris in the Valley or to continue to direct it outwards for punishing Pakistan through military means.

But the window for military action against Pakistan is shrinking. An invitation from the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to India to be the “guest of honour” at the meeting of its foreign ministers in Abu Dhabi on March1-2 means that no military action can take place before that date. The meeting will discuss “50 years of Islamic cooperation – the road map for prosperity and development” and Minister of External Affairs Sushma Swaraj will address it.

Almost 50 years ago, in 1969 when the OIC – then known as Orgnisation of Islamic Conference -- was founded at Rabat, India was thrown out of the founding meeting of the group. This time India sees the invitation “as a welcome recognition of the presence of 185 million Muslims in India and of their contribution to its pluralistic ethos, and of India's contribution to the Islamic world”. It cannot afford to lose the opportunity of addressing the OIC or anger it by military action against Pakistan before March 2. 

There is also no international support for escalation of military tensions between India and Pakistan. While US President Donald Trump admitted that the situation was “very dangerous” and that India was looking at a “very strong” response, he also added, “We would like to see that stopped.” Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman’s visit to India last week allowed him to press upon India and Pakistan to reduce tensions between them.

There is, therefore, every chance of the nationalist rhetoric being turned inwards against the local population in Kashmir. In the days and weeks to come, there is likelihood of a further crackdown in the Valley. If the anti-Kashmiri sentiment can be cynically converted into a broader communal sentiment, then one may be looking towards a highly polarised general election.

The writer is a journalist based in Delhi. He tweets @bharatitis