Rich nations must step in

IPCC's climate change report calls for mitigation and adaptation

The projections in the second part of the sixth assessment report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), though fundamentally not too different from those in the previous reports, present a far more ominous picture of the impending environmental and socio-economic crisis than visualised earlier. While much of the impact of global warming would be more severe than predicted earlier, some would simply be “unavoidable” and, more so, “irreversible”. The report maintains that the global temperature would rise by 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level (1850-1900), the threshold fixed under the Paris accord on climate change, in just next two decades. Further warming would reduce the options for adapting to the new normal. Besides, it would have dire implications for areas like food and water security, forest fires, flooding, human and animal health, transportation systems, urban infrastructure, biodiversity and marine resources.

What should particularly worry India is that it has been included among the nations that are set to suffer the greatest economic damage due to climate change. It should, therefore, brace itself to face extreme scenarios on almost all fronts — from rising sea levels to groundwater scarcity, from extreme weather patterns to fall in crop yields, and from biodiversity loss to heightened health hazards. Rising sea levels will pose formidable problems for coastal cities like Mumbai, Kolkata (close to the coast), Chennai, Goa, Cochin, and Puri. About 35 million people could be affected by coastal flooding by 2050 and 45-50 million by the end of the century. Indian agriculture is also projected to be majorly impacted with the yields of crops like wheat, coarse cereals, and pulses anticipated to drop by around 9 per cent by 2050. Such disruptions in farm production could, obviously, cause price spikes, threatening food affordability and jeopardising food security and economic growth.

India, fortunately, is not unaware of these threats and is already preparing itself to cope with them. Apart from drawing up a National Action Plan on Climate Change way back in 2008, it launched a National Initiative for Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA) in 2011. Efforts are underway to develop crop varieties and agronomic practices capable of withstanding climate-related stresses. These efforts, of course, need to be redoubled.

Indeed, this IPCC report, originally scheduled for release in September 2021 but delayed due to the pandemic, merits serious attention because it has been prepared by as many as 270 authors from 67 countries, and it cites nearly 34,000 references. Significantly, the report makes a strong case for adaptation efforts to go hand in hand with those aimed at mitigating warming by curbing harmful emission. It talks about large gaps in the adaptation action and attributes them, notably, to “lack of funding, political commitment, reliable information and sense of urgency”. The blame has rightly been put on rich nations, which are responsible for the current climate crisis.

The only way out now is to step up efforts to adapt to the emerging climate. This increases the relevance of the stand taken by India at the last climate summit at Glasgow, especially its call for equity, climate justice, and curbing unsustainable consumption. The developed nations must lead in mitigation and extend financial assistance to the developing countries for adaptation.