T N Ninan: The prospects for 2019

Will Modi and BJP repeat their 2014 performance to win absolute majority in 2019 Lok Sabha polls?

In a weekend when elections rule the airwaves and fire up the synapses, here are some speculative thoughts about the Lok Sabha elections due in 2019. The question is whether, on the evidence at hand, Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are likely to repeat their 2014 performance, and win an absolute majority in the Lok Sabha. The numbers involved in the calculations become more manageable if states are grouped into three categories: 10 in which the party is dominant and won 92 per cent of the seats in 2014 (194 out of 211), six states where it is a factor and won just under half the 157 seats available, and six other states where it has little presence and won only 5 per cent of 156 seats. Round off the numbers with the BJP winning the majority of the 18 seats in the states and Union Territories that have one-two seats each, and you get the full Lok Sabha picture.

If you take the states where the BJP has a poor presence (Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, West Bengal and Punjab), it will need a minor miracle for the party in 2019 to more than double its 2014 tally of eight seats out of 156. Similarly, in the states where it won nearly half the 157 seats in 2014 (Maharashtra, Bihar, Karnataka, Assam, J&K and Odisha), the current outlook for 2019 must be that the party will improve on its single seat in Odisha but lose some of its 22 seats in Bihar. The 2014 tally of 73 seats from these states may remain broadly unchanged in 2019. Assume victories in the bulk of the tiny states and Union Territories, and the party’s combined tally gets to 100 seats out of 331.

To get an absolute majority on its own in the Lok Sabha, i.e. 272 seats, the BJP will have to win 172 seats in the 10 states where it pretty much swept the tables clean in 2014. As should be obvious, Uttar Pradesh holds the key. An important determinant will be whether the party wins an absolute majority in the Assembly or is just the largest party. A majority, with the assumption of a bigger swing in favour of the party in a national election scenario, would make it entirely possible that the party will capture most of UP in 2019. Not getting a full majority in the Assembly would make the parliamentary outlook trickier.

That brings us to the BJP’s happy hunting grounds where it managed a clean sweep in 2014 — Rajasthan, Gujarat, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand — and the states where it did a near-sweep — Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Haryana. Electoral history and plain probability lead one to assume that repeating a 92 per cent win ratio is asking for a lot. A 70 per cent win ratio in the 10 states combined will give 148 seats, with the party losing 46 of the seats it currently holds in these states. However, given the large size of most victory margins in 2014, this can happen only with a significant swing in votes away from the BJP. In such a negative scenario, the party will stop slightly short of an absolute majority in the House.

Projecting election scenarios two years into the future is a hazardous business. Many things can change: The Opposition could cobble together a common platform if not an alliance; the government may gain or lose in popularity; the redoubtable Amit Shah may demonstrate his electoral prowess in as yet unconquered states; and accidents could always happen. At this point of time, though, the outlook is that the BJP will come close to a single-party majority in 2019. With a positive surprise or two, it may get a majority on its own once again. Either way, the betting has to be on the party forming the government in 2019 — giving Mr Modi the 10 years that he wanted to “bring the country into the 21st century” as he said in 2014.